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Are emerging stock market price indices really stationary?

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  • Chanwit Phengpis

Abstract

This study re-examines the univariate property of stock market price indices in ten emerging markets which are evidenced by prior empirical work, specifically by Chaudhuri and Wu (2003), to be I(0) or stationary. Important findings from variants of standard Dickey and Fuller (1979, 1981) and Zivot and Andrews (1992) unit root tests include: (1) the majority of these price indices can be more appropriately regarded as I(1) or non-stationary, and (2) the I(1) processes in these price indices have been increasingly discernible over time. These results imply non-mean reversion in stock market prices and unpredictability based on past prices in the majority of emerging stock markets under investigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Chanwit Phengpis, 2006. "Are emerging stock market price indices really stationary?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 931-939.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:16:y:2006:i:13:p:931-939
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100500386099
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April.
    2. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-558, December.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    5. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
    6. Angelos Kanas, 1998. "Linkages between the US and European equity markets: further evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 607-614.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    8. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-448, November.
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    10. Serletis, Apostolos & King, Martin, 1997. "Common Stochastic Trends and Convergence of European Union Stock Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(1), pages 44-57, January.
    11. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ankita Mishra & Vinod Mishra, 2011. "Is the Indian stock market efficient? Evidence from a TAR model with an autoregressive unit root," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 467-472.
    2. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Gracia, Fernando Perez de, 2010. "Mean reversion in stock market prices: New evidence based on bull and bear markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 113-122, June.

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