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Non-linear modelling of daily exchange rate returns, volatility, and 'news' in a small developing economy

  • Jose Sanchez-Fung

This paper models daily returns, volatility, and 'news' in the parallel foreign exchange market of a small developing economy, namely the Dominican Republic, during the period 1989-2001. The research adopts a non-linear specification that encompasses several members of the GARCH family. A leftward tilted news impact reveals that positive shocks (depreciations) have a higher impact than negative ones (appreciations) on the volatility of exchange rate returns. This result has significant implications for policymakers. For instance, it could help in the assessment of the potential effect of central bank interventions in the foreign exchange rate market.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 10 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 247-250

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:4:p:247-250
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  1. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  3. Hentschel, Ludger, 1995. "All in the family Nesting symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 71-104, September.
  4. Jose Sanchez-Fung, 1999. "Efficiency of the black market for foreign exchange and PPP: the case of the Dominican Republic," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 173-176.
  5. Bollerslev, T. & Ghysels, E., 1994. "Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Cahiers de recherche 9408, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  6. Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1990. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
  8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
  9. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
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