IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spt/stecon/v6y2017i2f6_2_3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projecting the long run relationship of Multi-population life expectancy by race

Author

Listed:
  • A. Ntamjokouen
  • S. Haberman
  • G. Consigli

Abstract

Census data demonstrate that life expectancy has improved over the last 100 years. In this paper, we attempt to predict life expectancy in the USA by both race( black people, white people, and the general population) and gender. In doing this, we employ methods of cointegration analysis that have appeared recently in the actuarial and demography literature. We investigate the dependence(through cointegration analysis) between the six variables and it shows a better fit with better performance than others models such as VAR and ARIMA in predicting life expectancy at birth by race. We show that there are similar long-term trends in the average life expectancy of the members of all the main racial groups residing in the USA. Our study offers new insights to demographers with regard to predicting the average future life expectancy of members of different racial groups.Mathematics Subject Classification: J11; J14; J15; C01; C52; C53Keywords: Life expectancy at birth; race; forecasting; VECM; ARIMA.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Ntamjokouen & S. Haberman & G. Consigli, 2017. "Projecting the long run relationship of Multi-population life expectancy by race," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(2), pages 1-3.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:stecon:v:6:y:2017:i:2:f:6_2_3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.scienpress.com/Upload/JSEM%2fVol%206_2_3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Njenga Carolyn N & Sherris Michael, 2011. "Longevity Risk and the Econometric Analysis of Mortality Trends and Volatility," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-54, July.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
    3. Rives Jr., N.W., 1977. "The effect of census errors on life table estimates of black mortality," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 67(9), pages 867-868.
    4. Pfaff, Bernhard, 2008. "VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation Within R Package vars," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i04).
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    7. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niels Haldrup & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2019. "A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillén & Jorge M. Uribe, 2015. "Mortality and Longevity Risks in the United Kingdom: Dynamic Factor Models and Copula-Functions," Working Papers 2015-03, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    3. Jarner, Søren F. & Jallbjørn, Snorre, 2020. "Pitfalls and merits of cointegration-based mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 80-93.
    4. Santos, João & Domingos, Tiago & Sousa, Tânia & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2016. "Does a small cost share reflect a negligible role for energy in economic production? Testing for aggregate production functions including capital, labor, and useful exergy through a cointegration-base," MPRA Paper 70850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Gaetano D’Adamo, 2014. "Wage spillovers across sectors in Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 523-552, September.
    7. Ahlgren, N. & Antell, J., 2008. "Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap tests of cointegration rank with financial time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(10), pages 4754-4767, June.
    8. Deborah Bentivoglio & Adele Finco & Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi, 2016. "Interdependencies between Biofuel, Fuel and Food Prices: The Case of the Brazilian Ethanol Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    9. Emmanouil Mavrakis & Christos Alexakis, 2018. "Statistical Arbitrage Strategies under Different Market Conditions: The Case of the Greek Banking Sector," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2), pages 159-185, August.
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    11. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    12. Grau, Aaron Stephan Alexander & Hockmann, Heinrich, 2017. "Estimating oligopsony power on two vertically integrated markets," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 261277, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Geng Niu & Bertrand Melenberg, 2014. "Trends in Mortality Decrease and Economic Growth," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1755-1773, October.
    14. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha, 2015. "Monetary policy and stock prices – Cross-country evidence from cointegrated VAR models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 254-265.
    16. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2017. "Effective Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Global Imbalances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 500-533, August.
    17. Paul Plummer & Daisaku Yamamoto, 2019. "Economic resilience of Japanese nuclear host communities: A quasi-experimental modeling approach," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 51(7), pages 1586-1608, October.
    18. Fakhri, Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate on the Non-oil Export: The Case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    20. Herzer, Dierk, 2013. "Cross-Country Heterogeneity and the Trade-Income Relationship," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 194-211.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spt:stecon:v:6:y:2017:i:2:f:6_2_3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eleftherios Spyromitros-Xioufis (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.scienpress.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.