IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v39y2025i4d10.1007_s11269-024-04044-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Numerical Modelling of Groundwater Level and Salinity Evolution in a Low-Lying Coastal Area Under Intensive Agricultural Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Mattia Gaiolini

    (Polytechnic University of Marche)

  • Nicolò Colombani

    (Polytechnic University of Marche)

  • Valeria Chierici

    (Consorzio di Bonifica Pianura di Ferrara)

  • Laura Montanari

    (Consorzio di Bonifica Pianura di Ferrara)

  • Micòl Mastrocicco

    (Campania University “Luigi Vanvitelli”)

Abstract

The groundwater salinity changes of the coastal unconfined aquifer of the Po Delta (Italy) from 2010 to 2020 were assessed via a density-dependent numerical model implemented with SEAWAT 4.2. The temporal discretization was defined on a monthly basis, allowing for detailed analysis of the evolution of salinity stratification within the aquifer and of the vertical fluxes induced by the reclamation drainage network. The validated model was used to unravel surface-groundwater interaction fluxes and the long-term impacts induced by the ongoing climate change. The simulation highlighted that deeper layers experienced a salinity increase due to the presence of hyper saline low permeability lenses, while shallow layers experienced both increasing and decreasing salinization trends, depending on the temporal and areal distribution of local factors such as recharge and evapotranspiration, the connection between the shallow aquifer and the drainage network, and the presence of a seawater wedge along the coastline. The sensitivity analysis performed on the maximum plant salt uptake due to evapotranspiration revealed a slight variation in the accumulated salinity mass and concentration within the aquifer, resulting in a maximum error of less than 2% at the end of the simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mattia Gaiolini & Nicolò Colombani & Valeria Chierici & Laura Montanari & Micòl Mastrocicco, 2025. "Numerical Modelling of Groundwater Level and Salinity Evolution in a Low-Lying Coastal Area Under Intensive Agricultural Activity," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(4), pages 1747-1761, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-024-04044-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-04044-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-024-04044-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-024-04044-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Colombani & A. Osti & G. Volta & M. Mastrocicco, 2016. "Impact of Climate Change on Salinization of Coastal Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(7), pages 2483-2496, May.
    2. Aikaterini Lyra & Athanasios Loukas, 2023. "Simulation and Evaluation of Water Resources Management Scenarios Under Climate Change for Adaptive Management of Coastal Agricultural Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2625-2642, May.
    3. Grant Ferguson & Tom Gleeson, 2012. "Vulnerability of coastal aquifers to groundwater use and climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 342-345, May.
    4. Miguel Pérez-Martín & Teodoro Estrela & Joaquín Andreu & Javier Ferrer, 2014. "Modeling Water Resources and River-Aquifer Interaction in the Júcar River Basin, Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4337-4358, September.
    5. Hassan Niazi & Thomas B. Wild & Sean W. D. Turner & Neal T. Graham & Mohamad Hejazi & Siwa Msangi & Son Kim & Jonathan R. Lamontagne & Mengqi Zhao, 2024. "Global peak water limit of future groundwater withdrawals," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 413-422, April.
    6. Abd-Elaty, Ismail & Ramadan, Elsayed M. & Elbagory, Ibrahim A. & Nosair, Ahmed M. & Kuriqi, Alban & Garrote, Luis & Ahmed, Ashraf A., 2024. "Optimizing Irrigation Systems for Water Efficiency and Groundwater Sustainability in the Coastal Nile Delta," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    7. Ajay Singh, 2024. "Effective Management of Water Resources Problems in Irrigated Agriculture Through Simulation Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(8), pages 2869-2887, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. H. Delottier & A. Pryet & A. Dupuy, 2017. "Why Should Practitioners be Concerned about Predictive Uncertainty of Groundwater Management Models?," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 61-73, January.
    2. repec:ags:aaea22:335970 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Atefeh Ahmadi & Marzieh Keshavarz & Farid Ejlali, 2025. "Resilience to Climate Change in Agricultural Water-Scarce Areas: The Major Obstacles and Adaptive Strategies," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(3), pages 1195-1214, February.
    4. Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2021. "Trends in U.S. Irrigated Agriculture: Increasing Resilience Under Water Supply Scarcity," Economic Information Bulletin 327359, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Iongel Duran-Llacer & Andrés A. Salazar & Pedro Mondaca & Lien Rodríguez-López & Rebeca Martínez-Retureta & Francisco Zambrano & Fabian Llanos & Frederic Frappart, 2025. "Influence of Avocado Plantations as Driver of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Chile’s Aconcagua Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, April.
    6. Dam, Thi Huyen Trang & Tur-Cardona, Juan & Speelman, Stijn & Amjath-Babu, T.S. & Sam, Anu Susan & Zander, Peter, 2021. "Incremental and transformative adaptation preferences of rice farmers against increasing soil salinity - Evidence from choice experiments in north central Vietnam," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    7. Nhan Quy Pham & Thoang Thi Ta & Le Thanh Tran & Thao Thi Nguyen, 2024. "Assessment of seawater intrusion vulnerability of coastal aquifers in context of climate change and sea level rise in the central coastal plains, Vietnam," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 20711-20735, August.
    8. Kristie S. Gutierrez & Catherine E. LePrevost, 2016. "Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    9. Barrios Ramos, Iris & Espinoza Tenorio, Alejandro & Mesa Jurado, M. Azahara & Tovilla Hernández, Cristian & Mendoza Carranza, Manuel, 2021. "Percepción social de la salinización del agua para uso doméstico en Puerto Madero, Chiapas, México," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 21(01), June.
    10. Villholth, Karen, 2015. "Groundwater for food production and livelihoods - the nexus with climate change and transboundary water management," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    11. N. Colombani & A. Osti & G. Volta & M. Mastrocicco, 2016. "Impact of Climate Change on Salinization of Coastal Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(7), pages 2483-2496, May.
    12. Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2021. "Trends in U.S. Irrigated Agriculture: Increasing Resilience Under Water Supply Scarcity," USDA Miscellaneous 316792, United States Department of Agriculture.
    13. Sina Sadeghfam & Rahman Khatibi & Rasoul Daneshfaraz & Hamid Borhan Rashidi, 2020. "Transforming Vulnerability Indexing for Saltwater Intrusion into Risk Indexing through a Fuzzy Catastrophe Scheme," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(1), pages 175-194, January.
    14. Lèye, Babacar & Koko, Jonas & Kane, Soulèye & Sy, Mamadou, 2018. "Numerical simulation of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers with anisotropic mesh adaptation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1-18.
    15. Abdelrahman M. Abdelgawad & Antoifi Abdoulhalik & Ashraf A. Ahmed & Salissou Moutari & G. Hamill, 2018. "Transient Investigation of the Critical Abstraction Rates in Coastal Aquifers: Numerical and Experimental Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(11), pages 3563-3577, September.
    16. Clara Estrela-Segrelles & Gabriel Gómez-Martínez & Miguel Ángel Pérez-Martín, 2023. "Climate Change Risks on Mediterranean River Ecosystems and Adaptation Measures (Spain)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2757-2770, May.
    17. Qing Zhou & Jiangjiang Zhang & Shuyou Zhang & Qiang Chen & Huifeng Fan & Chenglong Cao & Yanni Zhang & Yadi Yang & Jian Luo & Yijun Yao, 2025. "Groundwater quality evolution across China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    18. Iraj Saeedpanah & Ramin Golmohamadi Azar, 2017. "New Analytical Expressions for Two-Dimensional Aquifer Adjoining with Streams of Varying Water Level," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 403-424, January.
    19. Arianna Renau-Pruñonosa & Ignacio Morell & David Pulido-Velazquez, 2016. "A Methodology to Analyse and Assess Pumping Management Strategies in Coastal Aquifers to Avoid Degradation Due to Seawater Intrusion Problems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4823-4837, October.
    20. Ning Nie & Wanchang Zhang & Zhijie Zhang & Huadong Guo & Natarajan Ishwaran, 2016. "Reconstructed Terrestrial Water Storage Change (ΔTWS) from 1948 to 2012 over the Amazon Basin with the Latest GRACE and GLDAS Products," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 279-294, January.
    21. Bing Wang & Su-Yan Pan & Ruo-Yu Ke & Ke Wang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2015. "Erratum to: An overview of climate change vulnerability: a bibliometric analysis based on Web of Science database," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 301-301, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-024-04044-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.