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Evaluation and Comparison of the Effectiveness Rate of the Various Meteorological Parameters on UNEP Aridity Index Using Backward Multiple Ridge Regression

Author

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  • Abdol Rassoul Zarei

    (Fasa University)

  • Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi

    (Fasa University)

Abstract

Climate changes and its undesirable impacts (such as melting glaciers, the occurrence of floods, hurricanes and droughts, etc.) are among the most important disasters that human beings have faced in recent decades. Considering the important role of the meteorological parameters on climate change, in this research the effectiveness rate of various meteorological parameters including the mean minimum and maximum annual temperature (Max-Temp and Min-Temp), the mean annual temperature (M-Temp), the mean annual sunshine (Sunshine), the mean annual relative humidity (Humidity), the mean annual wind speed (Wind) and the mean of annual precipitation (Rainfall) on United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) aridity index was assessed and prioritized using the Backward Multiple Ridge Regression (BMRR). In this study, the meteorological data series of 25 synoptic stations in Iran with different climate conditions during 1967–2017 was used. The results indicated that the BMRR method had a nice capability to predict the UNEP index using the above-mentioned meteorological parameters (the linear regression between observed and predicted the UNEP index had no difference with perfect reliable line (Y = X) at 0.05 significant levels and the R2 between two mentioned data series were significant at 0.01 levels at all stations). According to the results, Rainfall, Wind and Max-Temp parameters were the most effective parameters on the UNEP aridity index, respectively and the Min-Temp, M-Temp and Sunshine parameters were the least effective parameters on the UNEP index, respectively. Therefore, it is suggested that all human activities that have direct or indirect effects in the increasing temperature and reducing the rainfall must be revised and optimized based on the principles of sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2021. "Evaluation and Comparison of the Effectiveness Rate of the Various Meteorological Parameters on UNEP Aridity Index Using Backward Multiple Ridge Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 159-177, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02716-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02716-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cristina Cattaneo & Michel Beine & Christiane J Fröhlich & Dominic Kniveton & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Marina Mastrorillo & Katrin Millock & Etienne Piguet & Benjamin Schraven, 2019. "Human Migration in the Era of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 189-206.
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    1. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Mehdi Moghimi & Elham Koohi, 2021. "Sensitivity Assessment to the Occurrence of Different Types of Droughts Using GIS and AHP Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3593-3615, September.

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