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Evaluating and Predicting the Effects of Land Use Changes on Water Quality Using SWAT and CA–Markov Models

Author

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  • Xiaoyan Gong

    (Jilin University)

  • Jianmin Bian

    (Jilin University)

  • Yu Wang

    (Jilin University)

  • Zhuo Jia

    (Jilin University)

  • Hanli Wan

    (Jilin University)

Abstract

Dongliao River Basin (DLRB) is facing serious deterioration of water quality impacted by anthropogenic activities. As China attaches increasing importance to environmental protection, many regions are trying to reduce water pollution through land use changes. The long-term variations of the nonpoint source (NPS) pollution affected by land use changes in the DLRB have not been previously assessed. In this study, the contributions of land use/land cover (LULC) changes in 1980–2015 to NPS pollution were evaluated by comparing simulations under paired land use scenarios using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The historical trend and ecological protection scenarios in 2025 were established based on CA–Markov model, and pollution loads in both scenarios were forecasted. Results show that the expansion of dryland and urban areas and the decline in forest and grassland coverage were the major contributors to the increase in NPS pollution in the DLRB. The expansion of paddy field resulted in an increase in actual total phosphorus (TP) but a decrease in total nitrogen (TN). In the historical trend scenario, dryland would decrease by 4.57%. TN and TP loads were 1.40% and 1.45% lower than those in 2015, respectively. In the ecological protection scenario, TN and TP loads were 3.37% and 6.11% lower than those in 2015, respectively, due to the decreased area of dryland by 7.22%. Pollutions in the riverside and southeast areas of the basin would be reduced in 2025. This finding shows that NPS pollution is controlled under the current policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoyan Gong & Jianmin Bian & Yu Wang & Zhuo Jia & Hanli Wan, 2019. "Evaluating and Predicting the Effects of Land Use Changes on Water Quality Using SWAT and CA–Markov Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(14), pages 4923-4938, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02427-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02427-0
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    2. G. Harik & I. Alameddine & M. Abou Najm & M. El-Fadel, 2023. "Modified SWAT to Forecast Water Availability in Mediterranean Mountainous Watersheds with Snowmelt Dominated Runoff," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 1985-2000, March.
    3. Yiqing Shao & Zengchuan Dong & Jinyu Meng & Shujun Wu & Yao Li & Shengnan Zhu & Qiang Zhang & Ziqin Zheng, 2023. "Analysis of Runoff Variation and Future Trends in a Changing Environment: Case Study for Shiyanghe River Basin, Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Kotapati Narayana Loukika & Venkata Reddy Keesara & Eswar Sai Buri & Venkataramana Sridhar, 2022. "Predicting the Effects of Land Use Land Cover and Climate Change on Munneru River Basin Using CA-Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.
    5. Zahra Allahdad & Saeed Malmasi & Morvarid Montazeralzohour & Seyed Mohammad Moein Sadeghi & Mohammad M. Khabbazan, 2022. "Presenting the Spatio-Temporal Model for Predicting and Determining Permissible Land Use Changes Based on Drinking Water Quality Standards: A Case Study of Northern Iran," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-14, November.

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