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A Forecast Model of Hydrologic Single Element Medium and Long-Period Based on Rough Set Theory

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  • Si-Hui Dong
  • Hui-Cheng Zhou
  • Hai-Jun Xu

Abstract

On the basis of rough set theory, this paper presents the single element medium- and long-term classification forecast model that uses historical data of a hydrologic series as forecast factors. The minimal rule set, i.e., forecast pattern set, is achieved according to the principle of maximal attribute significance and rules frequency. Maximal support strength is put forward and applied to predict by using the model. The model is applied to forecast annual runoff of Dahuofang reservoir. The result indicates that the forecast model based on rough set can describe the relationship between forecast factors and forecast object efficiently and accurately. This model, which is composed of simple solution rules, can be easily understood and applied. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Si-Hui Dong & Hui-Cheng Zhou & Hai-Jun Xu, 2004. "A Forecast Model of Hydrologic Single Element Medium and Long-Period Based on Rough Set Theory," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(5), pages 483-495, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:18:y:2004:i:5:p:483-495
    DOI: 10.1023/B:WARM.0000049180.27315.12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pawlak, Zdzislaw, 1997. "Rough set approach to knowledge-based decision support," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 48-57, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qiang Zhang & Ben-De Wang & Bin He & Yong Peng & Ming-Lei Ren, 2011. "Singular Spectrum Analysis and ARIMA Hybrid Model for Annual Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(11), pages 2683-2703, September.
    2. Maryam Zavareh & Viviana Maggioni, 2018. "Application of Rough Set Theory to Water Quality Analysis: A Case Study," Data, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-15, November.
    3. Muhammad Waseem Boota & Chaode Yan & Tanveer Abbas & Ziwei Li & Ming Dou & Ayesha Yousaf, 2021. "Comparative study of flash flood in ungauged watershed with special emphasizing on rough set theory for handling the missing hydrological values," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1387-1405, November.
    4. Yong-Ying Zhu & Hui-Cheng Zhou, 2009. "Rough Fuzzy Inference Model and its Application in Multi-factor Medium and Long-term Hydrological Forecast," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(3), pages 493-507, February.
    5. Yonas Ghile & Roland Schulze, 2010. "Evaluation of Three Numerical Weather Prediction Models for Short and Medium Range Agrohydrological Applications," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(5), pages 1005-1028, March.

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