Algeria’s Trade with GAFTA Countries: A Synthetic Control Approach
Arab countries signed the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) agreement in 1998, while Algeria only joined in 2005. In this study, I investigate the counterfactual trade that Algeria would have had with its GAFTA trade partners had it joined the agreement in 1998. I employ synthetic control methods (SCM) in the context of the gravity approach to international trade to estimate this counterfactual outcome. The SCM creates the synthetic control unit based on a weighted average of the past characteristics and trade realizations of the countries that signed the GAFTA agreement and compares the counterfactual trade outcome against the actual outcome of the treated unit, Algeria in our case. Estimation results indicate that Algeria’s trade with nine GAFTA countries, covering more than 96 % of Algeria’s pre-treatment trade, would have improved if Algeria had signed the agreement in 1998. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2012
Volume (Year): 19 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/european+integration/journal/11300|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Soloaga, Isidro & Winters, L. Alan, 1999.
"Regionalism in the Nineties: What Effect on Trade?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1995.
"Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence From the Evolution of the EC and EFTA,"
NBER Working Papers
5283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 141-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1995. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," CEPR Discussion Papers 1294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1995. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," IMF Working Papers 95/109, International Monetary Fund.
- Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
- Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of Californiaâ€™s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
- Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2009.
"Trade Openness and Growth: Pursuing Empirical Glasnost,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 447-475, August.
- Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2007. "Trade Openness and Growth; Pursuing Empirical Glasnost," IMF Working Papers 07/156, International Monetary Fund.
- Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:trstrv:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:35-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.