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Nuisance-parameter-free changepoint detection in non-stationary series

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Pešta

    (Charles University)

  • Martin Wendler

    (University of Greifswald)

Abstract

Many changepoint detection procedures rely on the estimation of nuisance parameters (like long-run variance). If a change has occurred, estimators might be biased and data adaptive rules for the choice of tuning parameters might not work as expected. If the data are not stationary, this becomes more challenging. The aim of this paper is to present two changepoint tests, which involve neither nuisance nor tuning parameters. This is achieved by combing self-normalization and wild bootstrap. We investigate the asymptotic behavior and show the consistency of the bootstrap under the hypothesis as well as under the alternative, assuming mild conditions on the weak dependence of the time series. As a by-product, a changepoint estimator is introduced and its consistency is proved. The results are illustrated through a simulation study. The new completely data-driven tests are applied to real data examples from finance and hydrology.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Pešta & Martin Wendler, 2020. "Nuisance-parameter-free changepoint detection in non-stationary series," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(2), pages 379-408, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:testjl:v:29:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11749-019-00659-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11749-019-00659-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Junwei Hu & Lihong Wang, 2023. "A weighted U-statistic based change point test for multivariate time series," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 753-778, June.
    2. Martin Hrba & Matúš Maciak & Barbora Peštová & Michal Pešta, 2022. "Bootstrapping Not Independent and Not Identically Distributed Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-26, December.
    3. Maciak, Matúš & Okhrin, Ostap & Pešta, Michal, 2021. "Infinitely stochastic micro reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 30-58.
    4. Michal Pešta, 2021. "Changepoint in Error-Prone Relations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, January.
    5. Cho, Haeran & Fryzlewicz, Piotr, 2023. "Multiple change point detection under serial dependence: wild contrast maximisation and gappy Schwarz algorithm," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120085, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Matúš Maciak & Michal Pešta & Barbora Peštová, 2020. "Changepoint in dependent and non-stationary panels," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1385-1407, August.
    7. Ishak Alia & Farid Chighoub & Nabil Khelfallah & Josep Vives, 2021. "Time-Consistent Investment and Consumption Strategies under a General Discount Function," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-27, February.

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