IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/stmapp/v28y2019i4d10.1007_s10260-019-00449-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling of lung cancer survival data for critical illness insurances

Author

Listed:
  • Joanna Dȩbicka

    (Wrocław University of Economics)

  • Beata Zmyślona

    (Wrocław University of Economics)

Abstract

Modelling of critical illness survival data, being primary developed in the context of, e.g. health insurance contracts, also plays an important role in the currently analysed problems related to secondary insurance market. The aim of this contribution is two-fold. In the first part we describe how to construct a multiple state model for critical illness insurances, which takes into account that a probability of death for a dread disease sufferer depends on the duration of the disease and the survival probabilities are related to the disease stage. Then, in the second part, we focus on modelling of the probabilistic structure of the analysed model for a particular case of dread disease. Based on the actual data for the Lower Silesian Voivodship in Poland, we estimate the transition probabilities for the derived model in case of the risk of lung cancer. For this purpose we use the methodology developed for the construction of multi-state life tables, such as binomial, Poisson and ordinal logistic regression models. The obtained results can be directly used to build the multiple increment–decrement tables, which are useful to valuation not only critical illness insurances and life insurances with accelerated death benefits option but also to viatical settlement contracts and health-related expenses.

Suggested Citation

  • Joanna Dȩbicka & Beata Zmyślona, 2019. "Modelling of lung cancer survival data for critical illness insurances," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(4), pages 723-747, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:28:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10260-019-00449-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-019-00449-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10260-019-00449-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10260-019-00449-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viorela Diaconu & Nadine Ouellette & Carlo Giovanni Camarda & Robert Bourbeau, 2016. "Insight on 'typical' longevity: An analysis of the modal lifespan by leading causes of death in Canada," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(17), pages 471-504.
    2. Nadine Gatzert, 2010. "The Secondary Market for Life Insurance in the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States: Comparison and Overview," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 279-301, September.
    3. Gregorius, F. K., 1993. "Disability insurance in The Netherlands," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 101-116, November.
    4. Svetlana Ukraintseva & Anatoli Yashin, 2003. "Individual Aging and Cancer Risk: How are They Related?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 9(8), pages 163-196.
    5. Alma Vega & Noli Brazil, 2015. "A multistate life table approach to understanding return and reentry migration between Mexico and the United States during later life," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(43), pages 1211-1240.
    6. Govert Bijwaard, 2014. "Multistate event history analysis with frailty," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(58), pages 1591-1620.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Hilpert & Jing Li & Alexander Szimayer, 2014. "The Effect of Secondary Markets on Equity-Linked Life Insurance With Surrender Guarantees," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(4), pages 943-968, December.
    2. Svetlana V. Ukraintseva & Anatoli I. Yashin, 2005. "Economic progress as cancer risk factor. I: Puzzling facts of cancer epidemiology," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Ga?ecka-Burdziak, Ewa & Góra, Marek, 2017. "How Do Unemployed Workers Behave Prior to Retirement? A Multi-State Multiple-Spell Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 10680, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Kung, Ko-Lun & Hsieh, Ming-Hua & Peng, Jin-Lung & Tsai, Chenghsien Jason & Wang, Jennifer L., 2021. "Explaining the risk premiums of life settlements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Pablo Alonso González & Irene Albarrán Lozano, 2009. "Private long term care insurance: Theoretical approach and results applied to the Spanish case," Alcamentos 0902, Universidad de Alcalá, Departamento de Economía..
    6. Pitacco, Ermanno, 1995. "Actuarial models for pricing disability benefits: Towards a unifying approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-62, April.
    7. NAGORE GARCIA Amparo & VAN SOEST Arthur, 2016. "Unemployment Exits Before and During the Crisis," LISER Working Paper Series 2016-14, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    8. Maegebier, Alexander, 2013. "Valuation and risk assessment of disability insurance using a discrete time trivariate Markov renewal reward process," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 802-811.
    9. Belzunce, Felix & Ortega, Eva-Maria & Ruiz, Jose M., 2007. "On non-monotonic ageing properties from the Laplace transform, with actuarial applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-14, January.
    10. Marcus Christiansen, 2012. "Multistate models in health insurance," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(2), pages 155-186, June.
    11. Damien Échevin & Bernard Fortin & Aristide Houndetoungan, 2023. "Healthcare Quality by Specialists under a Mixed Compensation System: an Empirical Analysis," CIRANO Working Papers 2023s-19, CIRANO.
    12. Hal Caswell & Silke van Daalen, 2021. "Healthy longevity from incidence-based models: More kinds of health than stars in the sky," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(13), pages 397-452.
    13. Alexander Braun & Sarah Affolter & Hato Schmeiser, 2016. "Life Settlement Funds: Current Valuation Practices and Areas for Improvement," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 173-195, September.
    14. Fang, Hanming & Wu, Zenan, 2020. "Life insurance and life settlement markets with overconfident policyholders," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    15. Cheng, Chunli & Hilpert, Christian & Miri Lavasani, Aidin & Schaefer, Mick, 2023. "Surrender contagion in life insurance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1465-1479.
    16. Joanna Dębicka & Stanisław Heilpern, 2020. "The optimization of insurance contracts on the viatical market," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 30(2), pages 5-27.
    17. Ermanno Pitacco, 2016. "Premiums for Long-Term Care Insurance Packages: Sensitivity with Respect to Biometric Assumptions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, February.
    18. Bergeron-Boucher, Marie-Pier & Vázquez-Castillo, Paola & Missov, Trifon, 2022. "A modal age at death approach to forecasting mortality," SocArXiv 5zr2k, Center for Open Science.
    19. Konstantin Arbeev & Svetlana Ukraintseva & Lyubov S. Arbeeva & Anatoli Yashin, 2005. "Mathematical Models for Human Cancer Incidence Rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 12(10), pages 237-272.
    20. Frans Willekens & Hein Putter, 2014. "Software for multistate analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(14), pages 381-420.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:28:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10260-019-00449-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.