Assessment of Agricultural Land Use Prospects Based on a Partial Equilibrium Model

In the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation On the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2030 and for the Future up to 2036 (dated May 7, 2024), one of the key tasks is to increase the volume of agricultural production by at least 25% compared to 2021. At the same time, special attention is paid to livestock products, the key component of which is dairy production (both raw materials and their processing). According to the Ministry of Agriculture, it is planned to increase milk production to 39 million tons per year by 2030. The GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model allows us to estimate the level of production and emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) as externalities. The results of our study showed that the expansion of land use and intensification will make it possible to achieve crop production of up to 230 million tons of grain equivalent (grain eq.), milk up to 39 million tons, and meat up to 12 million tons in slaughter weight. The level of GHG emissions will be reduced by 5%, to 95 million tons of CO2-equivalent (CO2(eq)). The obtained results are consistent with the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of May 14, 2021, No. 731 On the State Program for the Effective Involvement of Agricultural Lands into Circulation and the Melioration Development of the Russian Federation. A number of regions (the Black Sea zone) can become net absorbers of greenhouse gases due to the accumulation of crop residues, which contributes to the absorption (sequestration) of carbon in the soil. Other regions (steppe belt) have a greater risk of increasing emissions as in both livestock and crop production and maintaining the status of a net emitter of greenhouse gases.