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Long-Term Assessment of Energy Demand in Russian Passenger Transport in the Context of Low-Carbon Transformation

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  • O. V. Mazurova

    (Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the future demand for energy in transport in the context of the transition to a low-carbon development trajectory in accordance with the adopted “Strategy for the long-term development of the Russian Federation with low greenhouse gas emissions until 2050.” The research is based on scenario forecasting and mathematical modeling methods. The results of a forecast assessment of the demand for motor fuel and electricity in passenger transport in Russia as a whole and in federal districts until 2050 have been presented, taking into account: 1) transition of the economy to a low-carbon development model; 2) change in the structure of passenger turnover in favor of less carbon-intensive modes of transport; 3) increase in the energy efficiency and environmental safety of vehicles. The possible consequences of large-scale development of electric transport in Russia in the long term have been given.

Suggested Citation

  • O. V. Mazurova, 2024. "Long-Term Assessment of Energy Demand in Russian Passenger Transport in the Context of Low-Carbon Transformation," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 415-422, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:35:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1134_s1075700724030109
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724030109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Broadbent, Gail & Allen, Cameron & Wiedmann, Thomas & Metternicht, Graciela, 2022. "The role of electric vehicles in decarbonising Australia’s road transport sector: modelling ambitious scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Tsemekidi Tzeiranaki, Sofia & Economidou, Marina & Bertoldi, Paolo & Thiel, Christian & Fontaras, Georgios & Clementi, Enrico Luca & Franco De Los Rios, Camilo, 2023. "“The impact of energy efficiency and decarbonisation policies on the European road transport sector”," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Dmitriy Grushevenko & Ekaterina Grushevenko & Vyacheslav Kulagin, 2018. "Energy Consumption of the Russian Road Transportation Sector: Prospects for Inter-Fuel Competition in Terms of Technological Innovation," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 35-44.
    4. Huiming Gong & Michael Wang & Hewu Wang, 2013. "New energy vehicles in China: policies, demonstration, and progress," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 207-228, February.
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