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Energy Consumption in Russia: Current State and Forecast

Author

Listed:
  • O. V. Mazurova

    (Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • E. V. Gal’perova

    (Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Study of development prospects of the country’s economy and energy requires long-term forecasting of energy demand. Such forecasting is particularly complex due to, among other things, uncertainty of economic and political conditions and technological development, as well as increasing ambiguity and variability of the relevant influencing factors and trends. The article provides an analysis of the current state, long-term trends, and new directions of energy use in large sectors of the Russian economy (industry, household, transport), including comparisons with other countries. The applied methodological approach to forecasting energy demand can be adjusted for promising structural and technological changes in industries, the spread of new technologies, and improved energy efficiency. Possible trajectories of changes in electricity and energy demand and in the energy intensity of Russia’s GDP in the period until 2050 are calculated for conservative and baseline economic development scenarios. It is shown that the dynamics of per capita electricity consumption in Russia correspond to global trends. Additionally, estimates of changes in energy consumption levels associated with the use of digital technologies in the household sector and with large-scale development of electric mobility are also given.

Suggested Citation

  • O. V. Mazurova & E. V. Gal’perova, 2023. "Energy Consumption in Russia: Current State and Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 105-114, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:34:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1134_s1075700723010136
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723010136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dmitriy Grushevenko & Ekaterina Grushevenko & Vyacheslav Kulagin, 2018. "Energy Consumption of the Russian Road Transportation Sector: Prospects for Inter-Fuel Competition in Terms of Technological Innovation," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 35-44.
    2. Swan, Lukas G. & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2009. "Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1819-1835, October.
    3. Vincenzo Bianco, 2018. "The Future of the Italian Electricity Generation Sector. An Analysis of the Possible Strategic Models," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 20-28.
    4. Bubeck, Steffen & Tomaschek, Jan & Fahl, Ulrich, 2016. "Perspectives of electric mobility: Total cost of ownership of electric vehicles in Germany," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 63-77.
    5. Sergey Filippov, 2018. "New Technological Revolution and Energy Requirements," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 20-33.
    6. Muratori, Matteo & Moran, Michael J. & Serra, Emmanuele & Rizzoni, Giorgio, 2013. "Highly-resolved modeling of personal transportation energy consumption in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 168-177.
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