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Investment, Technological, and Social Aspects in Modeling the Transition to Low-Carbon Development: The Case of Uzbekistan

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  • S. V. Chepel’

    (Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting of the Ministry of Economic Development and Poverty Reduction)

Abstract

— Using the example of the energy sector and the agricultural sector of Uzbekistan, the article shows the possibility of incorporating the technical parameters of typical green and energy-saving projects into the basic input–output model, obtaining estimates of the impact made by such projects on the financial sustainability of the relevant industries. Approaches are reviewed to combining long-term scenario forecasts for the development of the industry with model calculations of macroeconomic, environmental, and social consequences that allow an unambiguous economic interpretation, as well as to choosing the directions of green transformation that are the most promising in terms of a set of criteria, including social ones. The purpose of the work is to show the possibility of taking into account the national interests of Uzbekistan when substantiating the green transformation model using a methodology that combines detailed input–output models with engineering calculations for specific green investment projects and estimates of demand for the investment resources necessary for their implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • S. V. Chepel’, 2022. "Investment, Technological, and Social Aspects in Modeling the Transition to Low-Carbon Development: The Case of Uzbekistan," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 571-581, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:33:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1134_s1075700722050069
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700722050069
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antoine GODIN & Guilherme MAGACHO & Achilleas MANTES & Devrim YILMAZ & Etienne ESPAGNE, 2021. "Developing Countries’ Macroeconomic Exposure to the Low-carbon Transition," Working Paper 987d9eb7-8fce-4eb0-8cb7-d, Agence française de développement.
    2. B. N. Porfiriev, 2019. "The Low-Carbon Development Paradigm and Climate Change Risk Reduction Strategy for the Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 111-118, March.
    3. Garrett-Peltier, Heidi, 2017. "Green versus brown: Comparing the employment impacts of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and fossil fuels using an input-output model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 439-447.
    4. Peszko,Grzegorz & Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique & Golub,Alexander Alexandrovich, 2020. "Diversification and Cooperation Strategies in a Decarbonizing World," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9315, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. S. V. Chepel, 2023. "Modeling the Environmental Macrostructural and Social Impacts of Reducing Energy Subsidies (by the Example of Uzbekistan)," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 713-723, October.

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