IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sorede/v33y2022i3d10.1134_s1075700722030121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Interest Rates and Maturity Indicators in the Russian Banking System

Author

Listed:
  • N. P. Pil’nik

    (Financial Research Institute, Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation)

  • S. A. Radionov

    (Financial Research Institute, Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation)

Abstract

— The article presents scenario forecasts of interest rates and durations of loans and deposits of nonfinancial organizations and individuals in national and foreign currencies in the Russian banking system depending on the predicted dynamics of the key interest rate and exchange rate. Monthly forecasts over a one-year horizon are obtained using short-term distributed lag models. The main specificity of the models is the use of a modified error functional adopting an approach similar to multistep forecasting. The results of the analysis indicate the existing risks of imbalances in the structure of assets and liabilities of the national banking system in the current macroeconomic conditions and against the backdrop of an increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia. First of all, a noticeable reduction is observed in the interest margin in the segment of ruble-denominated banking instruments of individuals. In addition, model calculations show an increase in the maturity of consumer loans while a decrease in the same indicator is observed for other instruments.

Suggested Citation

  • N. P. Pil’nik & S. A. Radionov, 2022. "Forecasting Interest Rates and Maturity Indicators in the Russian Banking System," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 344-352, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:33:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1134_s1075700722030121
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700722030121
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1134/S1075700722030121
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1134/S1075700722030121?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amir Jahan Khan, 2020. "Competitive Structure and Bank Loan Rate in Pakistan’s Banking Industry," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 377-398.
    2. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2008. "How do banks set interest rates?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 792-819, July.
    3. A. K. Moiseev & M. V. Cherkovets, 2018. "Scenario Prediction of Dynamics of Interest Rates and Internal Credit Volume in Russia for 2018−2022," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 507-513, September.
    4. Nikolay Pilnik & Stanislav Radionov & Artem Yazykov, 2018. "The Optimal Behavior Model of the Modern Russian Banking System," HSE Economic Journal, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 418-447.
    5. N. P. Pilnik & I. G. Pospelov & S. A. Radionov, 2020. "On Limits of the Influence of the Bank of Russia Key Rate on Indicators of the Russian Banking System," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 229-237, March.
    6. Li, Xiao-Lin & Si, Deng-Kui & Ge, Xinyu, 2021. "China’s interest rate pass-through after the interest rate liberalization: Evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 257-274.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James McNulty & Marina Murdock & Nivine Richie, 2013. "Are commercial bank lending propensities useful in understanding small firm finance?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(4), pages 511-527, October.
    2. Kitamura, Tomiyuki & Muto, Ichiro & Takei, Ikuo, 2016. "Loan interest rate pass-through and changes after the financial crisis: Japan’s evidence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 10-30.
    3. Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet & Anna Petronevich & Laurent Faucheux, 2018. "How do lenders price energy efficiency? Evidence from posted interest rates for unsecured credit in France [Comment les créditeurs valorisent-ils l'efficacité énergétique? Une analyse des taux d'in," Working Papers hal-01890636, HAL.
    4. Victor Pontines & Reza Y. Siregar, 2017. "Non-core liabilities and monetary policy transmission in Indonesia during the post-2007 global financial crisis," CAMA Working Papers 2017-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. David Byrne & Robert Kelly, 2019. "Bank asset quality & monetary policy pass-through," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(23), pages 2501-2521, May.
    6. Machava, Agostinho, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of the Pass-Through from the Market Interest Rate to the Bank Lending Rate in Mozambique," Umeå Economic Studies 954, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    7. Marotta, Giuseppe, 2009. "Structural breaks in the lending interest rate pass-through and the euro," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 191-205, January.
    8. Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric, 2022. "Does capital-based regulation affect bank pricing policy?," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 135-167, April.
    9. Wu, Ji & Luca, Alina C. & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2011. "Foreign bank penetration and the lending channel in emerging economies: Evidence from bank-level panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1128-1156, October.
    10. Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2016. "Regional Interest Rate Pass-Through in Italy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(8), pages 1404-1419, August.
    11. Aurélien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2016. "Structural and Cyclical Determinants of Bank Interest-Rate Pass-Through in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 196-225, June.
    12. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2016. "Time-varying mark-up and the ECB monetary policy transmission in a highly non linear framework," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 247-262.
    13. Sauro Mocetti, 2012. "Educational choices and the selection process: before and after compulsory schooling," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 189-209, February.
    14. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2008. "Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-Through and Optimal Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(3), pages 77-118, September.
    15. repec:csg:ajrcwp:06 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. G. C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias & Chew Lian Chua, 2013. "Bank and Official Interest Rates: How Do They Interact over Time?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(285), pages 160-174, June.
    17. Rainone, Edoardo, 2020. "The network nature of over-the-counter interest rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    18. Karlo Kauko, 2005. "Bank interest rates in a small European economy: Some exploratory macro level analyses using Finnish data," Finance 0508020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Nao Sudo & Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Imperfect Financial Integration," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-25, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    20. Palek, Jakob & Schwanebeck, Benjamin, 2019. "Optimal monetary and macroprudential policy in a currency union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 167-186.
    21. Max Breitenlechner & Johann Scharler, 2018. "How does monetary policy influence bank lending? Evidence from the market for banks' wholesale funding," Working Papers 2018-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:33:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1134_s1075700722030121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.