IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v170y2023i3d10.1007_s11205-023-03223-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does an Ageing Population Affect Crime Rates in the United States?

Author

Listed:
  • Rajarshi Mitra

    (Tokyo International University)

  • Md. Thasinul Abedin

    (University of Chittagong)

  • Kanon Kumar Sen

    (Jahangirnagar University)

Abstract

The United States is undergoing a demographic transition in which the proportion of individuals aged 65 years and above in total population is increasing. The age-crime relationship is a well-tested theory in criminology. A commonly accepted theory that has been unanimously supported by empirical evidence is that the propensity to commit crime decreases with age. But recent data from the FBI depicts an increase in crimes committed by the elderly. Notwithstanding the increasing trend in arrests among the elderly, we test the hypothesis that population ageing decreases total crime rates, violent crime rates, property crime rates, and their six sub-categories, namely, murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. We control for expenditures on police force (% of GDP), income inequality, national income, unemployment rate, poverty rate, and population density. The multiple break test, the bounds testing approach to cointegration analysis, and causality analysis are applied. The long-run results reject the hypothesis. Population ageing is found to increase crime rates in the United States. The results further indicate a positive correlation between population ageing and share of crimes committed by the elderly in total crimes in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajarshi Mitra & Md. Thasinul Abedin & Kanon Kumar Sen, 2023. "Does an Ageing Population Affect Crime Rates in the United States?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 825-845, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:170:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-023-03223-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-023-03223-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-023-03223-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-023-03223-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    5. Travis Hirschi & Michael Gottfredson, 1990. "Substantive Positivism and the Idea of Crime," Rationality and Society, , vol. 2(4), pages 412-428, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    2. Fukuda, Takashi & Dahalan, Jauhari, 2011. "“Finance-Growth-Crisis Nexus in India: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Assessment” - L’interazione finanza-crescita-crisi in India: evidenze da una analisi di cointegrazione e causalità," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 297-328.
    3. Fukuda, Takashi & Dahalan, Jauhari, 2011. "Finance-Growth-Crisis Nexus in India: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Assessment," MPRA Paper 39467, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Benchimol, Jonathan & Palumbo, Luigi, 2024. "Sanctions and Russian online prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 483-521.
    5. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2014. "Long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization, energy consumption and economic activity: Empirical evidence from India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 324-331.
    6. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2022. "On the relationship between Asian exchange rates and stock prices: a nonlinear analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 361-400, February.
    7. Mishra, Brajesh & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2020. "Evaluation of import substitution strategy in Indian telecom sector: Empirical evidence of non-linear dynamics," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(7).
    8. Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Sleem, Mohamed A.E., 2023. "Short- and long-run determinants of the price behavior of US clean energy stocks: A dynamic ARDL simulations approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability in the presence of structural breaks: Does overconfidence on resource exports hurt government’s ability to finance debt? Evidence from Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170317-117, December.
    10. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    11. Eléazar Zerbo, 2017. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries: Further evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1720-1744.
    12. Eléazar Zerbo, 2015. "What determines the long-run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Exploring the role of energy, trade openness and financial development in six countries," Working Papers hal-01238524, HAL.
    13. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Scott Fargher, 2012. "Testing the validity of the Feldstein--Horioka puzzle for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 599-605, February.
    14. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jeng-Bau Lin & Chin-Chia Liang & Wei Tsai, 2019. "Nonlinear Relationships between Oil Prices and Implied Volatilities: Providing More Valuable Information," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.
    16. Bartosz Jóźwik & Betül Altay Topcu & Mesut Doğan, 2024. "The Impact of Nuclear Energy Consumption, Green Technological Innovation, and Trade Openness on the Sustainable Environment in the USA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, August.
    17. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    18. Arfaoui, Mongi, 2018. "On the spot-futures relationship in crude-refined petroleum prices: New evidence from an ARDL bounds testing approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 48-58.
    19. Heidari, Hassan & Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Davoudi, Narmin, 2012. "Are current account deficits sustainable? New evidence from Iran using bounds test approach to level relationships," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-18.
    20. Samih Antoine Azar & Angelic Salha, 2017. "The Bias in the Long Run Relation between the Prices of BRENT and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oils," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 44-54.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bounds test; Cointegration; Crime; Demography; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:170:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11205-023-03223-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.