The impact of weather on public bus ridership: empirical findings from Chenzhou, China

Previous studies examining the relationship between weather and public transit ridership using smart card data have primarily focused on variables such as temperature, rainfall, and wind. However, limited research has investigated the impact of the air-quality index and sunshine duration. Utilizing 12 months of public bus smart card data and weather station records, this study explores the influence of local weather conditions—including temperature, rainfall, wind, air-quality index, and sunshine duration—on public bus ridership in Chenzhou, China. A negative binomial regression model is employed to analyze the relationship between weather and public bus ridership across different age groups. The findings reveal that temperature, rainfall, and air-quality index are statistically significant factors influencing the ridership of older individuals, with no notable differences observed between working days and non-working days. Wind speed and sunshine hours affect the transit choices of adults on working days, while air-quality index, sunshine duration, and temperature have distinct effects on non-working days. For students, temperature correlates with public bus use, and wind speed impacts their ridership only on non-school days; other weather variables show no significant correlation with their transit behavior. These results suggest that different age groups exhibit varying degrees of sensitivity to weather conditions when choosing public transit. Senior passengers, who generally have more flexibility in their schedules, display a lower tolerance for adverse weather conditions compared to adults, followed by students, whose transit behavior is relatively unaffected by weather changes. By leveraging smart card data, this study enhances the scientific understanding of the relationship between weather and public transit usage.