IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/operea/v25y2025i2d10.1007_s12351-025-00934-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wildfire growth modelling on heterogeneous landscapes for fire prevention: a case study of Sonoma county

Author

Listed:
  • Hamid R. Sayarshad

    (Cornell University)

Abstract

The suppression of wildfires involves making multiple decisions to anticipate fire growth and behavior, which are influenced by various factors in diverse environments. This research aims to identify the conditions that contribute to the ignition and spread of fires, considering different surface fuel characteristics and weather elements. To achieve this, a mixed integer programming model is proposed to calculate the minimum fire arrival time and fire line intensity. Moreover, this model is a systematic framework for analyzing the intricate interplay between environmental factors and wildfire behavior. We investigate a dynamic fire behavior model within a heterogeneous landscape, encompassing diverse elements such as topography, weather conditions, and fuel variables. By accounting for these varying landscape characteristics, our study aims to capture the complex dynamics of fire behavior and provide a comprehensive understanding of how fires propagate within diverse environments. The critical regions are ranked based on the direction fires propagate from the ignition point. Additionally, this study incorporates control locations into the model’s decision-making process to design potential suppression actions based on fire growth and behavior during the preignition stage. The model’s effectiveness is demonstrated through a detailed case study using real data from Sonoma County, California. One notable advantage of the model is its ability to rank critical regions based on their wildfire risks. The analysis reveals that polygons 95– 99, characterized by a high potential risk of active crown fires, are identified as the most effective control locations. This finding aligns with historical wildfire incidents in Sonoma County. The model offers valuable insights for stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding fire prevention and mitigation strategies, aiming to reduce the impact of wildfires in vulnerable regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamid R. Sayarshad, 2025. "Wildfire growth modelling on heterogeneous landscapes for fire prevention: a case study of Sonoma county," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1-32, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:operea:v:25:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s12351-025-00934-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s12351-025-00934-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12351-025-00934-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12351-025-00934-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:operea:v:25:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s12351-025-00934-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.