IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/operea/v25y2025i2d10.1007_s12351-025-00934-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wildfire growth modelling on heterogeneous landscapes for fire prevention: a case study of Sonoma county

Author

Listed:
  • Hamid R. Sayarshad

    (Cornell University)

Abstract

The suppression of wildfires involves making multiple decisions to anticipate fire growth and behavior, which are influenced by various factors in diverse environments. This research aims to identify the conditions that contribute to the ignition and spread of fires, considering different surface fuel characteristics and weather elements. To achieve this, a mixed integer programming model is proposed to calculate the minimum fire arrival time and fire line intensity. Moreover, this model is a systematic framework for analyzing the intricate interplay between environmental factors and wildfire behavior. We investigate a dynamic fire behavior model within a heterogeneous landscape, encompassing diverse elements such as topography, weather conditions, and fuel variables. By accounting for these varying landscape characteristics, our study aims to capture the complex dynamics of fire behavior and provide a comprehensive understanding of how fires propagate within diverse environments. The critical regions are ranked based on the direction fires propagate from the ignition point. Additionally, this study incorporates control locations into the model’s decision-making process to design potential suppression actions based on fire growth and behavior during the preignition stage. The model’s effectiveness is demonstrated through a detailed case study using real data from Sonoma County, California. One notable advantage of the model is its ability to rank critical regions based on their wildfire risks. The analysis reveals that polygons 95– 99, characterized by a high potential risk of active crown fires, are identified as the most effective control locations. This finding aligns with historical wildfire incidents in Sonoma County. The model offers valuable insights for stakeholders in making informed decisions regarding fire prevention and mitigation strategies, aiming to reduce the impact of wildfires in vulnerable regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamid R. Sayarshad, 2025. "Wildfire growth modelling on heterogeneous landscapes for fire prevention: a case study of Sonoma county," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1-32, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:operea:v:25:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s12351-025-00934-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s12351-025-00934-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12351-025-00934-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12351-025-00934-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sayarshad, Hamid R., 2025. "Coordinated routing, charging, and power grid for electric and hydrogen vehicles with renewable energy integration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Avci, Mualla Gonca & Avci, Mustafa & Battarra, Maria & Erdoğan, Güneş, 2024. "The wildfire suppression problem with multiple types of resources," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 316(2), pages 488-502.
    3. Karin L. Riley & Matthew P. Thompson & Joe H. Scott & Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, 2018. "A Model-Based Framework to Evaluate Alternative Wildfire Suppression Strategies," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Pallab Mozumder & Ryan Helton & Robert P. Berrens, 2009. "Provision of a Wildfire Risk Map: Informing Residents in the Wildland Urban Interface," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(11), pages 1588-1600, November.
    5. Tahvonen, Olli & Salo, Seppo, 1999. "Optimal Forest Rotation within SituPreferences," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 106-128, January.
    6. James R. Meldrum & Patricia A. Champ & Hannah Brenkert‐Smith & Travis Warziniack & Christopher M. Barth & Lilia C. Falk, 2015. "Understanding Gaps Between the Risk Perceptions of Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) Residents and Wildfire Professionals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(9), pages 1746-1761, September.
    7. Miles Lubin & Iain Dunning, 2015. "Computing in Operations Research Using Julia," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 238-248, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dimitris Bertsimas & Arthur Delarue & Patrick Jaillet & Sébastien Martin, 2019. "Travel Time Estimation in the Age of Big Data," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 498-515, March.
    2. Couture, Stéphane & Reynaud, Arnaud, 2011. "Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2002-2011, September.
    3. Davi Valladão & Thuener Silva & Marcus Poggi, 2019. "Time-consistent risk-constrained dynamic portfolio optimization with transactional costs and time-dependent returns," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 379-405, November.
    4. Sayarshad, Hamid R., 2025. "Equity-based vaccine delivery by drones: Optimizing distribution in disease-prone regions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    5. Tahvonen, Olli & Salo, Seppo & Kuuluvainen, Jari, 2001. "Optimal forest rotation and land values under a borrowing constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1595-1627, October.
    6. Ethan Anderes & Steffen Borgwardt & Jacob Miller, 2016. "Discrete Wasserstein barycenters: optimal transport for discrete data," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 84(2), pages 389-409, October.
    7. Viitala, Esa-Jussi, 2016. "Faustmann formula before Faustmann in German territorial states," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 47-58.
    8. Dowson, Oscar & Philpott, Andy & Mason, Andrew & Downward, Anthony, 2019. "A multi-stage stochastic optimization model of a pastoral dairy farm," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 1077-1089.
    9. Julia Touza & Charles Perrings & María Chas Amil, 2010. "Harvest Decisions and Spatial Landscape Attributes: The Case of Galician Communal Forests," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 46(1), pages 75-91, May.
    10. Dallinger, Bettina & Schwabeneder, Daniel & Lettner, Georg & Auer, Hans, 2019. "Socio-economic benefit and profitability analyses of Austrian hydro storage power plants supporting increasing renewable electricity generation in Central Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 482-496.
    11. Sánchez, Antonio & Martín, Mariano & Zhang, Qi, 2021. "Optimal design of sustainable power-to-fuels supply chains for seasonal energy storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    12. Dimitris Bertsimas & Velibor V. Mišić, 2017. "Robust Product Line Design," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 19-37, February.
    13. Purva Grover & Arpan Kumar Kar, 2017. "Big Data Analytics: A Review on Theoretical Contributions and Tools Used in Literature," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 18(3), pages 203-229, September.
    14. Zhen Xu & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2013. "Living with Wildfire: The Impact of Historic Fires on Property Values in Kelowna, BC," Working Papers 2013-05, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    15. Feng, Wei & Feng, Yiping & Zhang, Qi, 2021. "Multistage robust mixed-integer optimization under endogenous uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(2), pages 460-475.
    16. Hesaraki, Alireza F. & Dellaert, Nico P. & de Kok, Ton, 2019. "Generating outpatient chemotherapy appointment templates with balanced flowtime and makespan," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 304-318.
    17. Sahashi, Yoshinao, 2002. "The convergence of optimal forestry control," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 179-214, May.
    18. Géraud Krähenbühl, 2015. "Supply Analysis of the Forestry Industry," IRENE Working Papers 15-08, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    19. Goodhue, Rachael E. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Simon, Leo K., 2004. "We Should Drink No Wine Before Its Time," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt3fp78216, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    20. Chiradip Chatterjee & Pallab Mozumder, 2014. "Understanding Household Preferences for Hurricane Risk Mitigation Information: Evidence from Survey Responses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 984-996, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:operea:v:25:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s12351-025-00934-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.