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Effects of various combinations of boundary layer schemes and microphysics schemes on the track forecasts of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea

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  • Shumin Chen
  • Yu-Kun Qian
  • Shiqiu Peng

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of various combinations of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes and the microphysics schemes on the numerical forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs). Using different combinations of three PBL schemes (YSU, MYJ and MYNN2) and four microphysics schemes (Ferrier, Goddard, WSM6 and Lin), a number of experiments are carried out for five landed TCs in the South China Sea during 2012. Results show that the combination of the YSU and Ferrier schemes performs the best for the TC track forecasting, although it does not perform the best for the forecast of precipitation. Further analysis reveals that the best performance of the track forecast by the combination of the YSU and Ferrier schemes mainly attributes to a more accurate steering flow as well as TC wind structure produced by this combination. These results provide a valuable reference to the operational numerical forecasting of TC tracks in the future. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Shumin Chen & Yu-Kun Qian & Shiqiu Peng, 2015. "Effects of various combinations of boundary layer schemes and microphysics schemes on the track forecasts of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 61-74, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:78:y:2015:i:1:p:61-74
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1697-7
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    1. Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
    2. Alexander Khain & Barry Lynn, 2011. "Simulation of Tropical Cyclones Using Spectral Bin Microphysics," Chapters, in: Anthony Rocco Lupo (ed.), Recent Hurricane Research - Climate, Dynamics, and Societal Impacts, IntechOpen.
    3. D. Rao & Dasari Prasad, 2007. "Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to boundary layer and convective processes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(3), pages 429-445, June.
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