IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i6d10.1007_s11069-024-07070-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expanding glacial lakes and assessing outburst susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes using logistic regression in the Yigong Tsangpo Basin, Tibet, China

Author

Listed:
  • Ziyang Yuan

    (Chengdu University of Technology
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Rui Wang

    (Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research Corporation)

  • Wei Zhou

    (Chengdu University of Technology)

  • Ningsheng Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Runfang Liu

    (Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research Corporation)

  • Jinzhu Mao

    (Chengdu University of Technology
    Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research Corporation)

  • Tao Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Climate change is driving the rapid global expansion of glacial lakes, particularly in mountainous regions like the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Moraine-dammed lakes (MDLs), formed by glacial meltwater blocked by glacial moraine dams, significantly risk outburst floods with devastating consequences. Our study focuses on the Yigong Tsangpo Basin, using Landsat satellite imagery from 1990 to 2022 to analyze changes in glacial lake size and distribution. We observed a 17.24% rise in glacial lake numbers and a 54.7% increase in their total area over 32 years. We selected six easily obtainable assessment factors based on the extracted results and DEM information. We proposed a simple logistic regression model to assess MDL outburst susceptibility. The model effectively determined the outburst susceptibility of historical MDL events in southeastern Tibet beyond the Yigong Tsangpo Basin. Applied to the Yigong Tsangpo Basin, the model highlighted 11 high-risk lakes requiring immediate attention. This study provides valuable preliminary references for disaster prevention and mitigation of MDL outbursts in southeastern Tibet.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziyang Yuan & Rui Wang & Wei Zhou & Ningsheng Chen & Runfang Liu & Jinzhu Mao & Tao Wang, 2025. "Expanding glacial lakes and assessing outburst susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes using logistic regression in the Yigong Tsangpo Basin, Tibet, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(6), pages 6753-6776, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s11069-024-07070-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-07070-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-07070-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-07070-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 137-163, January.
    2. Tandong Yao & Lonnie Thompson & Wei Yang & Wusheng Yu & Yang Gao & Xuejun Guo & Xiaoxin Yang & Keqin Duan & Huabiao Zhao & Baiqing Xu & Jiancheng Pu & Anxin Lu & Yang Xiang & Dambaru B. Kattel & Danie, 2012. "Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 663-667, September.
    3. Georg Veh & Oliver Korup & Sebastian Specht & Sigrid Roessner & Ariane Walz, 2019. "Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 379-383, May.
    4. Xiang Wang & Guo Chen & Xiaoai Dai & Jingjing Zhao & Xian Liu & Yu Gao & Junmin Zhang & Yongjun Chen & Xiaozhen Li & Wenyi Qin & Peng Wang, 2022. "Improved Process Management of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazards by Integrating Modular Monitoring, Assessment, and Simulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2343-2358, May.
    5. Richard Kattelmann, 2003. "Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Nepal Himalaya: A Manageable Hazard?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 28(1), pages 145-154, January.
    6. Caroline Taylor & Tom R. Robinson & Stuart Dunning & J. Rachel Carr & Matthew Westoby, 2023. "Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Taigang Zhang & Weicai Wang & Baosheng An & Lele Wei, 2023. "Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Angel M. Morales & Patrick Tarwater & Indika Mallawaarachchi & Alok Kumar Dwivedi & Juan B. Figueroa-Casas, 2015. "Multinomial logistic regression approach for the evaluation of binary diagnostic test in medical research," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 16(2), pages 203-222, June.
    3. F. Gauthier & D. Germain & B. Hétu, 2017. "Logistic models as a forecasting tool for snow avalanches in a cold maritime climate: northern Gaspésie, Québec, Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(1), pages 201-232, October.
    4. Douglas Cumming & Lars Hornuf & Moein Karami & Denis Schweizer, 2023. "Disentangling Crowdfunding from Fraudfunding," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 182(4), pages 1103-1128, February.
    5. Cristian David Correa-Álvarez & Juan Carlos Salazar-Uribe & Luis Raúl Pericchi-Guerra, 2023. "Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models: a case study applied to the results of two questionnaires administered to university students," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 1791-1810, December.
    6. Eunae Yoo & Elliot Rabinovich & Bin Gu, 2020. "The Growth of Follower Networks on Social Media Platforms for Humanitarian Operations," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(12), pages 2696-2715, December.
    7. Cemal Eren Arbatlı & Quamrul H. Ashraf & Oded Galor & Marc Klemp, 2020. "Diversity and Conflict," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 727-797, March.
    8. Lo Turco, Alessia & Maggioni, Daniela, 2018. "Effects of Islamic religiosity on bilateral trust in trade: The case of Turkish exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 947-965.
    9. Matija Kovacic & Claudio Zoli, 2021. "Ethnic distribution, effective power and conflict," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 57(2), pages 257-299, August.
    10. Blackman, Allen & Guerrero, Santiago, 2012. "What drives voluntary eco-certification in Mexico?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 256-268.
    11. Jacob Ausderan, 2018. "Reassessing the democratic advantage in interstate wars using k-adic datasets," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(5), pages 451-473, September.
    12. Alessandra Iannamorelli & Stefano Nobili & Antonio Scalia & Luana Zaccaria, 2024. "Asymmetric Information and Corporate Lending: Evidence from SME Bond Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 163-201.
    13. Paul Poast, 2013. "Issue linkage and international cooperation: An empirical investigation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 286-303, July.
    14. Yerko Rojas, 2017. "Evictions and short-term all-cause mortality: a 3-year follow-up study of a middle-aged Swedish population," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 62(3), pages 343-351, April.
    15. Mehrez Ben Slama & Dhafer Saidane & Hassouna Fedhila, 2012. "How to identify targets in the M&A banking operations? Case of cross-border strategies in Europe by line of activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 209-240, February.
    16. Marcin Chlebus, 2014. "One-day prediction of state of turbulence for financial instrument based on models for binary dependent variable," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 37.
    17. Lorenzo Cassi & Anne Plunket, 2014. "Proximity, network formation and inventive performance: in search of the proximity paradox," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(2), pages 395-422, September.
    18. Trent Geisler & Herman Ray & Ying Xie, 2023. "Finding the Proverbial Needle: Improving Minority Class Identification Under Extreme Class Imbalance," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 40(1), pages 192-212, April.
    19. Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo & Danny Pimentel Claro & Marco Antonio Leonel Caetano & Rinaldo Artes, 2009. "Estimating Claim Size and Probability in the Auto-insurance Industry: The Zero-adjusted Inverse Gaussian (ZAIG) Distribution," Business and Economics Working Papers 056, Unidade de Negocios e Economia, Insper.
    20. Wegenast, Tim, 2013. "The Impact of Fuel Ownership on Intrastate Violence," GIGA Working Papers 225, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s11069-024-07070-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.