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Expanding glacial lakes and assessing outburst susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes using logistic regression in the Yigong Tsangpo Basin, Tibet, China

Author

Listed:
  • Ziyang Yuan

    (Chengdu University of Technology
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Rui Wang

    (Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research Corporation)

  • Wei Zhou

    (Chengdu University of Technology)

  • Ningsheng Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Runfang Liu

    (Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research Corporation)

  • Jinzhu Mao

    (Chengdu University of Technology
    Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research Corporation)

  • Tao Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Climate change is driving the rapid global expansion of glacial lakes, particularly in mountainous regions like the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Moraine-dammed lakes (MDLs), formed by glacial meltwater blocked by glacial moraine dams, significantly risk outburst floods with devastating consequences. Our study focuses on the Yigong Tsangpo Basin, using Landsat satellite imagery from 1990 to 2022 to analyze changes in glacial lake size and distribution. We observed a 17.24% rise in glacial lake numbers and a 54.7% increase in their total area over 32 years. We selected six easily obtainable assessment factors based on the extracted results and DEM information. We proposed a simple logistic regression model to assess MDL outburst susceptibility. The model effectively determined the outburst susceptibility of historical MDL events in southeastern Tibet beyond the Yigong Tsangpo Basin. Applied to the Yigong Tsangpo Basin, the model highlighted 11 high-risk lakes requiring immediate attention. This study provides valuable preliminary references for disaster prevention and mitigation of MDL outbursts in southeastern Tibet.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziyang Yuan & Rui Wang & Wei Zhou & Ningsheng Chen & Runfang Liu & Jinzhu Mao & Tao Wang, 2025. "Expanding glacial lakes and assessing outburst susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes using logistic regression in the Yigong Tsangpo Basin, Tibet, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(6), pages 6753-6776, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s11069-024-07070-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-07070-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tandong Yao & Lonnie Thompson & Wei Yang & Wusheng Yu & Yang Gao & Xuejun Guo & Xiaoxin Yang & Keqin Duan & Huabiao Zhao & Baiqing Xu & Jiancheng Pu & Anxin Lu & Yang Xiang & Dambaru B. Kattel & Danie, 2012. "Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 663-667, September.
    2. Caroline Taylor & Tom R. Robinson & Stuart Dunning & J. Rachel Carr & Matthew Westoby, 2023. "Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
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