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Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole

Author

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  • Taigang Zhang

    (Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Lanzhou University
    Lanzhou University)

  • Weicai Wang

    (Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Baosheng An

    (Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Tibet University)

  • Lele Wei

    (Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Lanzhou University
    Lanzhou University)

Abstract

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most severe cryospheric hazards in the Third Pole, encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding Himalayas, Hindu Kush, and Tianshan Mountains. Recent studies on glacial lake changes and GLOF characteristics and risks in this region have shown scattered and insufficiently detailed features. Here, we conduct an appraisal of the GLOF risks by combining high-resolution satellite images, case-by-case high-precision GLOF modeling, and detailed downstream exposure data. The glacial lake changes from 2018 to 2022 in the region were primarily driven by the accelerated expansion of proglacial lakes. The GLOF frequency has exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1980, with intensified activity in Southeastern Tibet and the China-Nepal border area over the past decade. Approximately 6,353 km2 of land could be at risk from potential GLOFs, posing threats to 55,808 buildings, 105 hydropower projects, 194 km2 of farmland, 5,005 km of roads, and 4,038 bridges. This study directly responds to the need for local disaster prevention and mitigation strategies, highlighting the urgent requirement of reducing GLOF threats in the Third Pole and the importance of regional cooperation.

Suggested Citation

  • Taigang Zhang & Weicai Wang & Baosheng An & Lele Wei, 2023. "Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-44123-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44123-z
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    1. Nitesh Khadka & Guoxiong Zheng & Xiaoqing Chen & Yan Zhong & Simon K. Allen & Manish Raj Gouli, 2025. "An ice-snow avalanche triggered small glacial lake outburst flood in Birendra Lake, Nepal Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(5), pages 6357-6365, March.

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