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Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya

Author

Listed:
  • Georg Veh

    (University of Potsdam)

  • Oliver Korup

    (University of Potsdam
    University of Potsdam)

  • Sebastian Specht

    (University of Potsdam
    GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)

  • Sigrid Roessner

    (GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)

  • Ariane Walz

    (University of Potsdam)

Abstract

Shrinking glaciers in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya–Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have formed several thousand moraine-dammed glacial lakes1–3, some of these having grown rapidly in past decades3,4. This growth may promote more frequent and potentially destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)5–7. Testing this hypothesis, however, is confounded by incomplete databases of the few reliable, though selective, case studies. Here we present a consistent Himalayan GLOF inventory derived automatically from all available Landsat imagery since the late 1980s. We more than double the known GLOF count and identify the southern Himalayas as a hotspot region, compared to the more rarely affected Hindu Kush–Karakoram ranges. Nevertheless, the average annual frequency of 1.3 GLOFs has no credible posterior trend despite reported increases in glacial lake areas in most of the HKKHN3,8, so that GLOF activity per unit lake area has decreased since the late 1980s. We conclude that learning more about the frequency and magnitude of outburst triggers, rather than focusing solely on rapidly growing glacial lakes, might improve the appraisal of GLOF hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Veh & Oliver Korup & Sebastian Specht & Sigrid Roessner & Ariane Walz, 2019. "Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 379-383, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0437-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Susanne Schmidt & Marcus Nüsser & Ravi Baghel & Juliane Dame, 2020. "Cryosphere hazards in Ladakh: the 2014 Gya glacial lake outburst flood and its implications for risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2071-2095, December.
    2. Taigang Zhang & Weicai Wang & Baosheng An & Lele Wei, 2023. "Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Meimei Zhang & Fang Chen & Bangsen Tian & Dong Liang & Aqiang Yang, 2020. "High-Frequency Glacial Lake Mapping Using Time Series of Sentinel-1A/1B SAR Imagery: An Assessment for the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-13, February.
    4. Caroline Taylor & Tom R. Robinson & Stuart Dunning & J. Rachel Carr & Matthew Westoby, 2023. "Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Uttam Puri Goswami & Manish Kumar Goyal, 2021. "Assessment of glacial lake development and downstream flood impacts of critical glacial lake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 1027-1046, October.

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