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Assessment of glacial lake development and downstream flood impacts of critical glacial lake

Author

Listed:
  • Uttam Puri Goswami

    (Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati
    Chhattisgarh Swami Vivekanand Technical University)

  • Manish Kumar Goyal

    (Indian Institute of Technology Indore)

Abstract

Glacial lakes are rapidly growing in response to climate change and glacier retreat which may lead to catastrophic socio-economic disasters. The failure of moraine-dammed lakes is associated with hazard for mountain communities due to high velocity and depth with destructive ability of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Therefore, assessment of glacial lake development and downstream flood impacts of critical glacial lakes with their undesirable outcomes is important. This study presents the insight of glacial lake outburst dynamics using detailed inventory of lakes with hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling over the area to be affected. As a result, total 203 glacial lakes are found having surface area > 0.01 km2 and more than 90% glacial lakes are situated at the high elevation (> 4500 m) zone. In addition, increasing lake size could increase the frequency of outburst and cause socio-economic damages. During the outburst of GL-3 Lake, the flow discharge could be increased by 4–6 times with 100% increase in velocity and depth and the travel time is 1.5–2.5 h to reach the Chugthang habitat. This increasing water level will directly affect the hydropower project at Chugthang, as there is no flat terrain for water spread. The flooding contributed due to lack of awareness of GLOF hazard and non-existence of land-use planning. Therefore, this study anticipated supporting the decision-makers to prepare the management plan in response to futuristic climate scenario and risk measures with inclusive of GLOFs; also suggested to utilize the glacial lakes as reservoir to reduce the risk for mountain communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Uttam Puri Goswami & Manish Kumar Goyal, 2021. "Assessment of glacial lake development and downstream flood impacts of critical glacial lake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 1027-1046, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:109:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04866-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04866-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sanjay Jain & Anil Lohani & R. Singh & Anju Chaudhary & L. Thakural, 2012. "Glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst flood in a Himalayan basin using remote sensing and GIS," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(3), pages 887-899, July.
    2. Dan H. Shugar & Aaron Burr & Umesh K. Haritashya & Jeffrey S. Kargel & C. Scott Watson & Maureen C. Kennedy & Alexandre R. Bevington & Richard A. Betts & Stephan Harrison & Katherine Strattman, 2020. "Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 939-945, October.
    3. Georg Veh & Oliver Korup & Sebastian Specht & Sigrid Roessner & Ariane Walz, 2019. "Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 379-383, May.
    4. Shakil Ahmad Romshoo & Jasia Bashir & Irfan Rashid, 2020. "Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1473-1491, October.
    5. Mark Carey & Christian Huggel & Jeffrey Bury & César Portocarrero & Wilfried Haeberli, 2012. "An integrated socio-environmental framework for glacier hazard management and climate change adaptation: lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca, Peru," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 733-767, June.
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