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Emergency management decision of urban rainstorm and flood disasters based on similar cases analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Wen Li

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Rengui Jiang

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Jiancang Xie

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Yong Zhao

    (Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)

  • Jiwei Zhu

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Siyu Yang

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

Abstract

Under the background of global climate change and rapid development of urbanization, urban extreme occurs more frequently. In consideration of the existing problems in the emergency management decision-making of urban rainstorm and flood disasters in China, this study put forward the decision-making method of urban rainstorm and flood disaster emergency management based on similar cases analysis method. Based on the evolution process of urban waterlogging disaster, the problem attribute system of urban rainstorm and flood disasters was established. The case-based reasoning (CBR) method was used to calculate the global similarity to determine the best historical case. The case-based decision theory (CBDT) method was used to calculate the comprehensive utility value of alternative cases to determine the optimal alternative cases. The empirical analysis was took in Xi'an city, one of the national center cities of China. Results show that the CBR method was used to obtain the highest similarity of historical case P3, which is 0.481. The CBDT method was used to calculate the high similarity of historical cases P3 and P4 to form the similar case set, with the similarity of 0.820 and 0.851, respectively. Combined with the event development, the comprehensive utility values were calculated. When the decision-maker pays the same attention to the emergency effect and response cost, the comprehensive utility value of P3 and P4 is 0.922 and 0.900, respectively, and P3 is the best reference scheme. By comparison, the latter is more suitable. The results can provide scientific basis for emergency management of urban rainstorm and flood disasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen Li & Rengui Jiang & Jiancang Xie & Yong Zhao & Jiwei Zhu & Siyu Yang, 2023. "Emergency management decision of urban rainstorm and flood disasters based on similar cases analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 753-768, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05697-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05697-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1995. "Case-Based Decision Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 605-639.
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    3. Jiayang Zhang & Yangbo Chen, 2019. "Risk Assessment of Flood Disaster Induced by Typhoon Rainstorms in Guangdong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, May.
    4. Huafei Yu & Yaolong Zhao & Yingchun Fu & Le Li, 2018. "Spatiotemporal Variance Assessment of Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging Affected by Impervious Surface Expansion: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
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