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Impacts of climate change on savannah woodland biomass carbon density and water-use: a modelling study of the Sudanese gum belt region

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  • Syed Alam
  • Mike Starr

Abstract

This paper analyzes potential impacts of climate change on biomass carbon (C) density and water-use (actual evapotranspiration, AET) of savannah woodlands in Sudan. Climate change scenarios were developed from five General Circulation Models (GCMs; CGCM2, CSIRO2, ECHam4, HadCM3 and PCM) under two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) emission scenarios (A1FI and B1). Baseline (1961-90) climate and climate change scenarios for 2080s for eight map sheet grids (1° latitude x 1.5° longitude) were constructed. Compared to baseline values, mean annual precipitation (MAP) showed both increases (+112 to +221 mm) and decreases (−13 to −188 mm) but mean annual temperature (MAT) only showed increases (+1.2 to +8.3 °C). Baseline biomass C densities showed an exponential relationship with MAP (y = 6.798 e 0.0054x , R 2 = 0.70). Depending on climate change MAP, biomass C densities increased (+14 to +241 g C m −2 ) or decreased (−1 to −148 g C m −2 ). However, because of uncertainty in biomass C density estimates, the changes were only significant (P >0.05) for some of the climate change scenarios and for grids with MAP >260 mm. Under A1FI emission scenarios, only HadCM3 did not have a significant effect while under B1 emission scenarios, only CGCM2 and ECHam4 had a significant effect on biomass C density. AET also showed both increases (+100 to +145 mm for vertisols and +82 to +197 mm for arenosols) and decreases (−12 to −178 mm for vertisols and −12 to −132 mm for arenosols). The largest relative changes in AET (up to 31 %) were associated with grids receiving the lowest rainfall. Thus, even if MAP increases across the study region, the increase will have little impact on biomass levels in the driest areas of the region, emphasizing the need for improved management and use of savannah woodlands. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Alam & Mike Starr, 2013. "Impacts of climate change on savannah woodland biomass carbon density and water-use: a modelling study of the Sudanese gum belt region," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(7), pages 979-999, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:7:p:979-999
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9403-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank & International Finance Corporation & Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, 2008. "Development and Climate Change," World Bank Publications - Reports 28200, The World Bank Group.
    2. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    3. Raddad, E.Y. & Luukkanen, O., 2007. "The influence of different Acacia senegal agroforestry systems on soil water and crop yields in clay soils of the Blue Nile region, Sudan," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 61-72, January.
    4. World Bank & International Finance Corporation & Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, 2008. "Development and Climate Change," World Bank Publications - Reports 28201, The World Bank Group.
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