IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joprea/v41y2024i1d10.1007_s12546-023-09322-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the civilian noninstitutional population for small areas: a modified cohort component approach using public use data

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew C. Forrester

    (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Abstract

This article develops a demographic method to estimate the civilian noninstitutional population for counties and county equivalents in the U.S. While these data provide the key sampling frame for national labor market surveys and denominators for labor market prevalence rates, the data are thus far unavailable for small areas. I develop a modified cohort component method to produce novel, monthly estimates of the civilian noninstitutional population for all U.S. counties using publicly available data on population and vital statistics with minimal modifications. The resulting population data may be used by researchers and policymakers to study within-year population dynamics as they relate to economic and demographic factors. I further extend the method to produce short-term population projections that include the most current vital statistics. The method compares favorably to existing annual, midyear estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, but is prone to error in areas with fewer vital events.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew C. Forrester, 2024. "Estimating the civilian noninstitutional population for small areas: a modified cohort component approach using public use data," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-31, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:41:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s12546-023-09322-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s12546-023-09322-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12546-023-09322-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12546-023-09322-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Craig A. Feinstein, 2002. "Seasonality of Deaths in the U.S. by Age and Cause," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(17), pages 471-488.
    2. David Lam & Jeffrey Miron, 1996. "The effects of temperature on human fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(3), pages 291-305, August.
    3. Tom Wilson, 2022. "Preparing local area population forecasts using a bi-regional cohort-component model without the need for local migration data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(32), pages 919-956.
    4. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tamás Hajdu & Gábor Hajdu, 2022. "Temperature, climate change, and human conception rates: evidence from Hungary," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1751-1776, October.
    2. Philip Rees & Tom Wilson, 2023. "Accuracy of Local Authority Population Forecasts Produced by a New Minimal Data Model: A Case Study of England," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-30, December.
    3. Yuchao Chen & Yunus A. Kinkhabwala & Boris Barron & Matthew Hall & Tomás A. Arias & Itai Cohen, 2024. "Small-area population forecasting in a segregated city using density-functional fluctuation theory," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 2255-2275, December.
    4. Jiyoon Kim & Ajin Lee & Maya Rossin-Slater, 2019. "What to Expect When It Gets Hotter: The Impacts of Prenatal Exposure to Extreme Heat on Maternal Health," NBER Working Papers 26384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Li, Han & Chen, Hua, 2024. "Hierarchical mortality forecasting with EVT tails: An application to solvency capital requirement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 549-563.
    6. Brian C. Thiede & Sara Ronnkvist & Anna Armao & Katrina Burka, 2022. "Climate anomalies and birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Meierrieks, Daniel & Stadelmann, David, 2024. "Is temperature adversely related to economic development? Evidence on the short-run and the long-run links from sub-national data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 136, pages 1-18.
    8. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Yew, Siew Ling, 2022. "Local crime and fertility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 312-331.
    9. Alan Barreca & Olivier Deschenes & Melanie Guldi, 2018. "Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1269-1293, August.
    10. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    11. Carles X. Simó-Noguera & Josep Lledó & Jose M. Pavía, 2020. "Lent impact on the seasonality of conceptions during the twentieth century in Spain," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(5), pages 875-893, November.
    12. Keivabu, Risto Conte & Cozzani, Marco & Wilde, Joshua, 2023. "Temperature and Fertility: Evidence from Spanish Register Data," IZA Discussion Papers 16110, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Sarah Hamersma & Yilin Hou & Yusun Kim & Douglas Wolf, 2018. "Business Cycles, Medicaid Generosity, and Birth Outcomes," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(5), pages 729-749, October.
    14. Bratti, Massimiliano & Frimpong, Prince Boakye & Russo, Simone, 2021. "Prenatal Exposure to Heat Waves and Child Health in Sub-saharan Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 14424, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Tina Ho & Andrew Noymer, 2017. "Summertime, and the livin’ is easy: Winter and summer pseudoseasonal life expectancy in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(45), pages 1445-1476.
    16. Gigi Santow & Bracher, 2001. "Deferment of the First Birth and Fluctuating Fertility in Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 343-363, December.
    17. Jacek Cypryjański & Urszula Ala-Karvia & Ewa Putek-Szeląg, 2024. "The role of sex and age in seasonal mortality – the case of Poland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(17), pages 577-594.
    18. Khandaker Jafor Ahmed & Yan Tan & Dianne Rudd, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between changes in fertility and disasters: a review of the literature," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-29, March.
    19. Jose M. Pavía & Josep Lledó, 2022. "Estimation of the combined effects of ageing and seasonality on mortality risk: An application to Spain," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(2), pages 471-497, April.
    20. Laura Piqué-Fandiño & Sandrine Gallois & Samuel Pavard & Fernando V Ramirez Rozzi, 2022. "Reproductive seasonality in the Baka Pygmies, environmental factors and climatic changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-18, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population estimation and projections; Model specification; Small areas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:41:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s12546-023-09322-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.