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Political violence, risk aversion, and population health: Evidence from the US Capitol riot

Author

Listed:
  • Dhaval Dave

    (Bentley University
    National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
    IZA
    San Diego State University)

  • Drew McNichols

    (San Diego State University)

  • Joseph J. Sabia

    (IZA
    San Diego State University)

Abstract

This study is the first to explore the impact of the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot on risk avoidance behavior and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized smartphone data from SafeGraph, Inc., and an event-study approach, we document a substantial increase on January 6 in non-resident smartphone pings at the sites of the protest: the Ellipse, the National Mall, and the US Capitol Building. Then, using data from the same source and a synthetic control approach, we find that the Capitol riot led to an increase in stay-at-home behavior among District of Columbia residents, consistent with risk avoidance behavior and post-riot policies designed to limit large in-person gatherings. Finally, while we find no evidence that the Capitol riot substantially increased the spread of COVID-19 in the District of Columbia, we do find that counties with the highest inflows of out-of-town protesters experienced a 0.004 to 0.010 increase in the rate of daily cumulative COVID-19 case growth during the month following the event. These findings are exacerbated in counties without COVID-19 mitigation policies in place.

Suggested Citation

  • Dhaval Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2022. "Political violence, risk aversion, and population health: Evidence from the US Capitol riot," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1345-1384, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:35:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s00148-022-00914-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-022-00914-0
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capitol riot; Stay-at-home behavior; COVID-19 spread;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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