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Economic Crises, Subjective Well-Being, and Vote Switching: The Case of Brazil’s 2018 Presidential Election

Author

Listed:
  • Martijn J. Burger

    (Open University of the Netherlands
    University of Johannesburg
    Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Martijn Hendriks

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam
    Erasmus University)

  • Elena I. Ianchovichina

    (World Bank)

Abstract

This paper examines the influence of the 2015 economic crisis on subjective well-being (SWB) and the withdrawal of support for the incumbent party during the 2018 presidential election in Brazil. Using Gallup World Poll data and a post-election national survey conducted by the Center for Studies on Public Opinion, we find that the economic crisis influenced through different channels both SWB and vote switching. Worsening personal economic circumstances explain the decline in SWB in the aftermath of the crisis, while deteriorating perceptions about the economy explain the vote switching during the presidential election in 2018. Leadership disapproval played a role in both, but to different degrees. One possible explanation for the limited effect of personal economic circumstances on voting behavior in Brazil is that those who were most severely affected by the economic downturn, specifically the poorest individuals in the country, did not see voting for Bolsonaro as a feasible or desirable choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Martijn J. Burger & Martijn Hendriks & Elena I. Ianchovichina, 2023. "Economic Crises, Subjective Well-Being, and Vote Switching: The Case of Brazil’s 2018 Presidential Election," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 2831-2853, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jhappi:v:24:y:2023:i:8:d:10.1007_s10902-023-00706-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10902-023-00706-7
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subjective well-being; Elections; Economic crisis; Expectations; Brazil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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