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Matching global cobalt demand under different scenarios for co-production and mining attractiveness

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  • Alexandre Tisserant
  • Stefan Pauliuk

Abstract

Many new and efficient technologies require ‘critical metals’ to function. These metals are often extracted as by-product of another metal, and their future supply is therefore dependent on mining developments of the host metal. Supply of critical metals can also be constrained because of political instability, discouraging mining policies, or trade restrictions. Scenario analyses of future metal supply that take these factors into account would provide policy makers with information about possible supply shortages. We provide a scenario analysis for demand and supply of cobalt, a potentially critical metal mainly used not only in high performance alloys but also in lithium-ion batteries and catalysts. Cobalt is mainly extracted as by-product of copper and nickel. A multiregional input–output (MRIO) model for 20 world regions and 163 commodities was built from the EXIOBASE v2.2.0 multiregional supply and use table with the commodity technology construct. This MRIO model was hybridized by disaggregating cobalt flows from the nonferrous metal sector. Future cobalt demand in different world regions from 2007 to 2050 was then estimated, assuming region- and sector-specific GDP growth, constant technology, and constant background import shares. A dynamic stock model of regional reserves for seven different types of copper, cobalt, and nickel resources, augmented with optimization-based region-specific mining capacity estimates, was used to determine future cobalt supply. The investment attractiveness index developed by the Fraser Institute specifically for mining industry entered the optimization routine as a measure of the regional attractiveness of mining. The baseline scenario shows no cobalt supply constraints over the considered time period 2007–2050, and recovering about 60 % of cobalt content of the copper and nickel ore flows would be sufficient to match global cobalt demand. When simulating a hypothetical sudden supply dropout in Africa during the period 2020–2035, we found that shortages in cobalt supply might occur in such scenarios. Copyright Tisserant and Pauliuk. 2016

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  • Alexandre Tisserant & Stefan Pauliuk, 2016. "Matching global cobalt demand under different scenarios for co-production and mining attractiveness," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecstr:v:5:y:2016:i:1:p:1-19:10.1186/s40008-016-0035-x
    DOI: 10.1186/s40008-016-0035-x
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    14. Hanto, Jonathan & Krawielicki, Lukas & Krumm, Alexandra & Moskalenko, Nikita & Löffler, Konstantin & Hauenstein, Christian & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2021. "Effects of decarbonization on the energy system and related employment effects in South Africa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 124, pages 73-84.
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    17. Becker, Jonathon M., 2021. "General equilibrium impacts on the U.S. economy of a disruption to Chinese cobalt supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
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    19. Jordan, Brett, 2018. "Economics literature on joint production of minerals: A survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 20-28.
    20. Tang, Chen & Sprecher, Benjamin & Tukker, Arnold & Mogollón, José M., 2021. "The impact of climate policy implementation on lithium, cobalt and nickel demand: The case of the Dutch automotive sector up to 2040," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    21. Keisuke Nansai & Kenichi Nakajima & Sangwon Suh & Shigemi Kagawa & Yasushi Kondo & Wataru Takayanagi & Yosuke Shigetomi, 2017. "The role of primary processing in the supply risks of critical metals," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 335-356, July.
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    24. Han, Sun & Zhenghao, Meng & Meilin, Li & Xiaohui, Yang & Xiaoxue, Wang, 2023. "Global supply sustainability assessment of critical metals for clean energy technology," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
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