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Ambiguity and self-protection: evidence from social distancing under the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Daiki Kishishita

    (Tokyo University of Science)

  • Hans H. Tung

    (National Taiwan University
    National Taiwan University)

  • Charlotte Wang

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

This paper studies how people make decisions over preventive behaviors under ambiguity (i.e., Knightian uncertainty) where they do not even know the probability of a loss. In the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic, scientific uncertainty makes it hard to evaluate not only whether one will be infected, but also probabilities such as the infection rate. We constructed a simple model and demonstrated how its effect was heterogeneous depending on ambiguity-attitudes. Motivated by the model, we further conducted a survey experiment in Japan where we manipulated the information regarding scientific uncertainty on COVID-19. We found that higher ambiguity induced by scientific uncertainty increased the level of social distancing among ambiguity-loving people, but such evidence was nonexistent for ambiguity-averse counterparts.

Suggested Citation

  • Daiki Kishishita & Hans H. Tung & Charlotte Wang, 2024. "Ambiguity and self-protection: evidence from social distancing under the COVID-19 pandemic," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 75(2), pages 269-300, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecrev:v:75:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s42973-022-00120-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s42973-022-00120-3
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    Keywords

    Scientific uncertainty; Ambiguity; Self-protection; Preventive behaviors; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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