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Evaluating the existence of a natural U.S. hate crime rate using a fractional integration approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sakiru Adebola Solarin

    (Multimedia University, Centre for Accounting, Finance, and Economics)

  • Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana

    (University of Navarra, Faculty of Economics, Edificio Amigos
    Universidad Francisco de Vitoria)

  • Chris Stewart

    (Kingston University, Faculty of Business and Social Sciences)

Abstract

We assess the degree of persistence for 36 U.S. states’ hate crime rates using fractional integration. For 9 states the hate crime rate exhibits mean reversion. The hate crime rate tends to an upward trend for 5 states (possibly reflecting increased hate crime reporting/compliance through time) and for 3 states there is evidence that the hate crime rate reverts to a downward trend. This is consistent with an evolving natural rate over the sample for these 8 states. For 17 states law enforcement expenditures aimed at deterrence will at best lower offending in the short run because the hate crime will return to its constant or evolving natural rate in the long run. Corrective policies designed to change the natural rate are recommended for these states. The results for the District of Columbia and Utah are ambiguous, and for the remaining 17 states there is no reversion to a natural hate crime rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Chris Stewart, 2026. "Evaluating the existence of a natural U.S. hate crime rate using a fractional integration approach," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 73(1), pages 1-23, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:inrvec:v:73:y:2026:i:1:d:10.1007_s12232-026-00522-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s12232-026-00522-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ryan, Matt E. & Leeson, Peter T., 2011. "Hate groups and hate crime," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 256-262.
    2. Glenn Withers, 1984. "Crime, Punishment and Deterrence in Australia: An Empirical Investigation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 60(2), pages 176-185, June.
    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1219-1246, March.
    4. Buck, Andrew J. & Gross, Meir & Hakim, Simon & Weinblatt, J., 1983. "The deterrence hypothesis revisited," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 471-486, November.
    5. Mina Cikara & Vasiliki Fouka & Marco Tabellini, 2022. "Hate crime towards minoritized groups increases as they increase in sized-based rank," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1537-1544, November.
    6. repec:bla:ecorec:v:60:y:1984:i:169:p:176-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2010. "Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 759-782, April.
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    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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