IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ijoeps/v19y2025i2d10.1007_s42495-025-00150-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric cointegration between capital flight and domestic investment: threshold autoregressive-quintile regression perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Chukwudi Odionye

    (Abia State University)

  • Jude Okechukwu Chukwu

    (Miva Open University)

  • Ndubuisi Eme Uguru

    (University of Nigeria)

Abstract

Capital flight remains a topical issue as it presents developmental challenges to developing economies facing insufficient investible capital. The study observed an empirical lack in threshold adjustment rate of convergence in capital flight literature and how response variable reacts to predictors at various quantiles. Hence, this study investigates the asymmetric cointegration between capital flight and domestic investment in Nigeria between 1981 and 2021 using the threshold autoregressive quantile regression model. Empirical results from four distinct models validate the supposition that domestic investment is a reversal function of capital flight. The quantile regression results suggest that there exists a high sensitivity of domestic investment and a degree of convergence to percentile change in predictors. More importantly, the threshold adjustment favours a positive threshold and indicates an elevated degree of convergence to equilibrium. Furthermore, an increase in capital flight above the threshold value will severely hurt domestic investment. The study recommends that the quality of institutional and legal frameworks be put in place to fight corruption and curb capital flight as well as provide a business-friendly environment to boost domestic investment in Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Chukwudi Odionye & Jude Okechukwu Chukwu & Ndubuisi Eme Uguru, 2025. "Asymmetric cointegration between capital flight and domestic investment: threshold autoregressive-quintile regression perspective," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 255-274, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijoeps:v:19:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s42495-025-00150-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s42495-025-00150-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s42495-025-00150-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s42495-025-00150-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boyce, James K. & Ndikumana, Leonce, 2014. "Strategies for Addressing Capital Flight," Working Papers 1ecc2821-84c5-4ac1-b726-a, African Economic Research Consortium.
    2. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    3. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Fentaw Leykun Fisseha, 2022. "Effect of capital flight on domestic investment: Evidence from Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2105975-210, December.
    5. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    6. Perron, P, 1993. "Erratum [The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis]," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 248-249, January.
    7. Lionel Effiom & Emmanuel Uche & Otei Asuquo Otei, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of capital flight on domestic investment in Nigeria: evidence from non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-23, October.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    9. Joseph Chukwudi Odionye & Ethelbert Ukachukwu Ojiaku & Ndubuisi Agoh & Chikeziem F. Okorontah & Roy M. Okpara & Callistus Ogu, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and equity index in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries: accounting for multiple structural breaks in a panel framework," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 1-30, June.
    10. Ahmed Oluwatobi Adekunle & Adedeji Daniel Gbadebo & Joseph Olorunfemi Akande & Harada Yoshifumi & Muhammed Manzuma-Ndaaba Ndanusa, 2023. "Dynamics of capital flight components and domestic investment in Nigeria," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 13(7), pages 515-532.
    11. A. Yasemin Yalta, 2010. "Effect of Capital Flight on Investment: Evidence from Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 40-54, November.
    12. J. K. Boyce & L. Ndikumana, 2001. "Is Africa a Net Creditor? New Estimates of Capital Flight from Severely Indebted Sub-Saharan African Countries, 1970-96," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 27-56.
    13. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    15. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    16. Lionel Effiom & Alfa Charles Achu & Samuel Etim Edet, 2020. "Capital Flight and Domestic Investment in Nigeria: Evidence From ARDL Methodology," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(1), pages 348-360, January.
    17. Joseph Chukwudi Odionye & Ethelbert Ukachukwu Ojiaku & Chiwuike N. Uba, 2023. "Impact of interest rate differential, exchange rate changes and political stability on Foreign capital inflow in Nigeria: Discrete threshold regression model," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2203590-220, December.
    18. repec:aer:wpaper:aa4416939d19 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Joseph Chukwudi Odionye & Jude Okechukwu Chukwu, 2023. "Asymmetric Reactions Of Stock Prices And Industrial Output To Exchange Rate Shocks: Multiple Threshold Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Framework," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 68(237), pages 165-191, April – J.
    20. Joseph Chukwudi Odionye & Jude Okechukwu Chukwu, 2021. "The Asymmetric Effects Of Currency Devaluation In Selected Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(230), pages 135-156, July – Se.
    21. Farina Khan & Kashif Abbass & Wu Qun & Muhammad Asif, 2024. "Investigating capital flight in South Asian countries: The dual influence of terrorism and corruption," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(3), pages 1-19, March.
    22. Boyce, James K. & Ndikumana, Leonce, 2014. "Strategies for Addressing Capital Flight," Working Papers 0c46e485-a40d-4eca-a343-c, African Economic Research Consortium.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    24. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    25. Almounsor Abdullah, 2008. "Capital Flight Accounting and Welfare Implications in the MENA Region," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-67, April.
    26. Usman, Francis Robert & Arene, Chukwuemeka John, 2014. "Effects of Capital Flight and Its Macroeconomic Determinants in Agricultural Growth in Nigeria (1970-2013)," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 2(4), pages 1-20, October.
    27. Augustine C. Odo & Nathaniel E. Urama & Joseph Chukwudi Odionye, 2024. "Volatile capital flows and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of transparency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1801-1827, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
    2. Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2015. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in Nigeria: A revisit of the energy-growth debate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 166-176.
    3. Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2017. "Energy-growth long-term relationship under structural breaks. Evidence from Canada, 17 Latin American economies and the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 121-134.
    4. de Jesus, Diego Pitta & Lenin Souza Bezerra, Bruno Felipe & da Nóbrega Besarria, Cássio, 2020. "The non-linear relationship between oil prices and stock prices: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    6. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Do house prices hedge inflation in the US? A quantile cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 15-26.
    7. Zou, Gao Lu, 2012. "The long-term relationships among China's energy consumption sources and adjustments to its renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 456-467.
    8. Abdul Jalil & Samia Manan & Sundus Saleemi, 2016. "Estimating the growth effects of services sector: a cointegration analysis for Pakistan," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
    10. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2012. "Gold as an Infl ation Hedge in a Time-Varying Coeffi cient Framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 0362, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Lusine Lusinyan & John Thornton, 2011. "Unit roots, structural breaks and cointegration in the UK public finances, 1750-2004," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2583-2592.
    12. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    13. Nourah Al†Yousef, 2018. "Fundamentals and Oil Price Behaviour: New Evidence from Co†integration Tests with Structural Breaks and Granger Causality Tests," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, March.
    14. Andries, Natalia & Billon, Steve, 2016. "Retail bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: An empirical survey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 170-194.
    15. Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2012. "Modelling the dynamics, structural breaks and the determinants of the real exchange rate of Australia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 343-358.
    16. Massa, Ricardo & Rosellón, Juan, 2020. "Linear and nonlinear Granger causality between electricity production and economic performance in Mexico," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    17. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Aliyu Alhaji Jibrilla & Abdalla Sirag & Hamisu Sadi Ali & Ibrahim Muye Muhammad, 2016. "Public Revenue-Expenditure Nexus in South Africa: Are there Asymmetries?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 520-537, December.
    18. Francis Bismans, 2021. "Une analyse économétrique des déterminants des hospitalisations dues à la Covid-19," Working Papers of BETA 2021-42, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    19. repec:zbw:rwirep:0362 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Lei Pan & Svetlana Maslyuk-Escobedo & Vinod Mishra, 2019. "Carry Trade Returns and Commodity Prices under Capital and Interest Rate Controls: Empirical Evidence from China," Monash Economics Working Papers 16-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    21. McLeod, Roger C.D. & Haughton, Andre Yone, 2018. "The value of the US dollar and its impact on oil prices: Evidence from a non-linear asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 61-69.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ijoeps:v:19:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s42495-025-00150-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.