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How to compare market efficiency? The Sharpe ratio based on the ARMA-GARCH forecast

Author

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  • Lin Liu

    (Peking University)

  • Qiguang Chen

    (Peking University)

Abstract

This paper derives a new method for comparing the weak-form efficiency of markets. The author derives the formula of the Sharpe ratio from the ARMA-GARCH model and finds that the Sharpe ratio just depends on the coefficients of the AR and MA terms and is not affected by the GARCH process. For empirical purposes, the Sharpe ratio can be formulated with a monotonic increasing function of R-squared if the sample size is large enough. One can utilize the Sharpe ratio to compare weak-form efficiency among different markets. The results of stochastic simulation demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The author also constructs empirical AR-GARCH models and computes the Sharpe ratio for S&P 500 Index and the SSE Composite Index.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin Liu & Qiguang Chen, 2020. "How to compare market efficiency? The Sharpe ratio based on the ARMA-GARCH forecast," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:6:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-020-00200-6
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-020-00200-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wendi Zhang & Bin Li & Alan Wee-Chung Liew & Eduardo Roca & Tarlok Singh, 2023. "Predicting the returns of the US real estate investment trust market: evidence from the group method of data handling neural network," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-33, December.
    2. Umara Noreen & Attayah Shafique & Usman Ayub & Syed Kashif Saeed, 2022. "Does the Adaptive Market Hypothesis Reconcile the Behavioral Finance and the Efficient Market Hypothesis?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Yan Meng & Lingyun Xiong & Lijuan Xiao & Min Bai, 2023. "The effect of overseas investors on local market efficiency: evidence from the Shanghai/Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, December.
    4. Chunying Wu & Xiong Xiong & Ya Gao, 2022. "Does ESG Certification Improve Price Efficiency in the Chinese Stock Market?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(1), pages 97-122, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARMA; GARCH; Measurement of market efficiency; Sharpe ratio; Stochastic simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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