IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurpop/v41y2025i1d10.1007_s10680-025-09745-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial Trends in Mortality Convergence: The Cases of France, Italy, and Spain, 1975–2019

Author

Listed:
  • Jacob Martin

    (Universidad del País Vasco (UPV/EHU)
    Institut national d’études démographiques)

  • Carlo Giovanni Camarda

    (Institut national d’études démographiques)

  • Timothy Riffe

    (Universidad del País Vasco (UPV/EHU)
    Ikerbasque (Basque Foundation for Science)
    Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

Abstract

Spatial differences in mortality are a significant source of inequality in low-mortality countries and are important for public health, regional planning, and subnational population forecasts. Long-term trends in geographic mortality inequalities remain poorly understood, especially from a comparative perspective. In this study, we examine trends in subnational mortality differences in France, Italy, and Spain from 1975 to 2019. We study whether life expectancy has converged or diverged between geographic areas, assess how the geographic mortality gradient has changed, and document age-specific differences. We find convergence in life expectancy in all three countries, although the path of convergence varies between countries and sexes. We find concerning evidence of diverging mortality at younger ages in all three countries. Our results show that even in similar national contexts, very different subnational trajectories in mortality inequalities can occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacob Martin & Carlo Giovanni Camarda & Timothy Riffe, 2025. "Spatial Trends in Mortality Convergence: The Cases of France, Italy, and Spain, 1975–2019," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 41(1), pages 1-28, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:41:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-025-09745-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-025-09745-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10680-025-09745-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10680-025-09745-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wagstaff, Adam & Paci, Pierella & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 1991. "On the measurement of inequalities in health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 545-557, January.
    2. Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.
    3. Debón, A. & Chaves, L. & Haberman, S. & Villa, F., 2017. "Characterization of between-group inequality of longevity in European Union countries," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 151-165.
    4. Markus Sauerberg & Florian Bonnet & Carlo Giovanni Camarda & Pavel Grigoriev, 2024. "Mortality Convergence in Europe? Spatial Differences in Life Expectancy Gains Between 1995 and 2019," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(4), pages 1401-1427, December.
    5. Florian Bonnet & Hippolyte d'Albis, 2020. "Spatial Inequality in Mortality in France over the Past Two Centuries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(1), pages 145-168, March.
    6. Samuel Preston & Mikko Myrskylä & Yana Vierboom, 2024. "Socio-behavioral factors contributing to recent mortality trends in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(7), pages 191-214.
    7. Lorenzo Del Panta & Lucia Pozzi, 2011. "Age and cause mortality structure in the Italian regions at the beginnings of the health transition: a research project," Statistica, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna, vol. 71(1), pages 23-49.
    8. Boyle, G E & McCarthy, T G, 1997. "A Simple Measure of Beta-Convergence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 257-264, May.
    9. Iñaki Permanyer & Jeroen Spijker & Amand Blanes & Elisenda Renteria, 2018. "Longevity and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment in Spain: 1960–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2045-2070, December.
    10. Néstor Aldea & Dariya Ordanovich & Alberto Palloni & Diego Ramiro & Francisco Viciana, 2023. "Influence of Place of Birth on Adult Mortality: The Case of Spain," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-22, December.
    11. Carlo Giovanni Camarda, 2019. "Smooth constrained mortality forecasting," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(38), pages 1091-1130.
    12. James Vaupel & Vladimir Romo, 2003. "Decomposing change in life expectancy: A bouquet of formulas in honor of Nathan Keyfitz’s 90th birthday," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(2), pages 201-216, May.
    13. Béatrice Valdes, 2013. "Demographic Analysis of AIDS Mortality in Spain [Análisis demográfico de la mortalidad por sida en España]," Post-Print halshs-01138297, HAL.
    14. Montero-Granados, Roberto & de Dios Jiménez, Juan & Martín, José, 2007. "Decentralisation and convergence in health among the provinces of Spain (1980-2001)," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 1253-1264, March.
    15. Isaac Sasson, 2016. "Trends in Life Expectancy and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment: United States, 1990–2010," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(2), pages 269-293, April.
    16. Arun S. Hendi, 2024. "Does Inequality Have Momentum? The Implications of Convex Inequality Regimes for Mortality Dynamics," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(4), pages 1209-1237, December.
    17. Graziella Caselli & Loredana Cerbara & Frank Heinsg & Rosa Maria Lipsi, 2003. "What Impact Do Contextual Variables Have on the Changing Geography of Mortality in Italy?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 339-373, December.
    18. Mendes Borges, Gabriel, 2018. "Teorías y medidas de convergencia demográfica: una aplicación a nivel subnacional en América Latina," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), June.
    19. Andrew Fenelon, 2013. "Geographic Divergence in Mortality in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(4), pages 611-634, December.
    20. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1973_28n3_0537 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Octavio Bramajo, 2024. "Lung cancer mortality trends among women across Spain: the role of birth cohorts in diverging regional patterns," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-27, March.
    22. M. Bell & M. Blake & P. Boyle & O. Duke‐Williams & P. Rees & J. Stillwell & G. Hugo, 2002. "Cross‐national comparison of internal migration: issues and measures," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(3), pages 435-464, October.
    23. Fanny Janssen & Leo van Wissen & Joop de Beer & Anthe van den Hende, 2016. "Sigma and beta convergence in regional mortality: A case study of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(4), pages 81-116.
    24. Miguel González-Leonardo & Antonio López-Gay & Albert Esteve, 2022. "Interregional migration of human capital in Spain," Regional Studies, Regional Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 324-342, December.
    25. Andrew Fenelon & Samuel Preston, 2012. "Estimating Smoking-Attributable Mortality in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 797-818, August.
    26. Magali Barbieri, 2013. "La mortalité départementale en France," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 68(3), pages 433-479.
    27. Florian Bonnet, 2020. "Computations of French lifetables by department, 1901–2014," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(26), pages 741-762.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bravo, Jorge M. & Ayuso, Mercedes & Holzmann, Robert & Palmer, Edward, 2021. "Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 200-221.
    2. Seaman, Rosie & Riffe, Tim & Leyland, Alastair H. & Popham, Frank & van Raalte, Alyson, 2019. "The increasing lifespan variation gradient by area-level deprivation: A decomposition analysis of Scotland 1981–2011," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 147-157.
    3. Alvarez, Jesús-Adrián & Kallestrup-Lamb, Malene & Kjærgaard, Søren, 2021. "Linking retirement age to life expectancy does not lessen the demographic implications of unequal lifespans," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 363-375.
    4. Matteo Dimai, 2025. "Clustering of mortality paths with the Hellinger distance and visualization through the DISTATIS technique," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 34(2), pages 345-384, May.
    5. Wen Su & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Alyson van Raalte & José Manuel Aburto, 2024. "Subnational contribution to life expectancy and life span variation changes: Evidence from the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(22), pages 583-624.
    6. Jesús-Adrián Álvarez & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb & Søren Kjærgaard, 2020. "Linking retirement age to life expectancy does not lessen the demographic implications of unequal lifespans," CREATES Research Papers 2020-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Ricarda Duerst & Jonas Schöley & Christina Bohk-Ewald, 2023. "A validation workflow for mortality forecasting," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-020, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    8. Chiara Micheletti & Francisco Villavicencio, 2024. "On the relationship between life expectancy, modal age at death, and the threshold age of the life table entropy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(24), pages 763-788.
    9. Edwards, Ryan, 2008. "Widening health inequalities among U.S. military retirees since 1974," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(11), pages 1657-1668, December.
    10. José M. Aburto & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2017. "Lifespan dispersion in times of life expectancy fluctuation: the case of Central and Eastern Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. Aburto, José Manuel & Kristensen, Frederikke Frehr & Sharp, Paul, 2021. "Black-white disparities during an epidemic: Life expectancy and lifespan disparity in the US, 1980–2000," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    12. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    13. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2023. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1033-1049.
    14. repec:osf:socarx:5zr2k_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Martin Gächter & Engelbert Theurl, 2010. "Convergence of the Health Status at the Local Level: Empirical Evidence from Austria," NRN working papers 2010-09, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    16. Cosmo Strozza & Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Julia Callaway & Sven Drefahl, 2024. "Forecasting Inequalities in Survival to Retirement Age by Socioeconomic Status in Denmark and Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-28, December.
    17. Malene Kallestrup‐Lamb & Søren Kjærgaard & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2020. "Insight into stagnating adult life expectancy: Analyzing cause of death patterns across socioeconomic groups," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(12), pages 1728-1743, December.
    18. Cavalieri, Marina & Ferrante, Livio, 2020. "Convergence, decentralization and spatial effects: An analysis of Italian regional health outcomes," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 164-173.
    19. Simon Schnürch & Torsten Kleinow & Ralf Korn, 2021. "Clustering-Based Extensions of the Common Age Effect Multi-Population Mortality Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-32, March.
    20. Florian Bonnet & Hippolyte d'Albis & Josselin Thuilliez, 2022. "Influenza mortality in French regions after the Hong Kong flu pandemic," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(19), pages 545-576.
    21. Wen Su & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2024. "Cross-sectional Average Length of Life Entropy ( $${\mathcal{H}}_{\text{CAL}}$$ H CAL ): International Comparisons and Decompositions," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-23, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:41:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-025-09745-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.