IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v27y2025i6d10.1007_s10668-024-05117-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change-induced urban flooding trend analysis and land use change: a case study of flood-prone Pathumthani Province, Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Nawhath Thanvisitthpon

    (Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi)

  • Arisara Nakburee

    (Kasetsart University)

  • Panita Saguansap

    (Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi)

  • Prinya Mruksirisuk

    (Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi)

Abstract

The aim of this research is to project climate change-induced rainfall for three future periods using three dynamically downscaling regional climate models (RCM1–RCM3) based on three respective global climate models: ICHEC-ECEARTH, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-MR and NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M. The projections are carried out under two representative concentration pathways: RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The three future periods include near- (2022–2040), mid- (2041–2060) and far-future (2061–2099). The study area is Thailand’s central province of Pathumthani, which is a low-lying area and prone to flash flooding. The projected climate-induced rainfall is measured by five future extreme climate indexes: consecutive dry days (CDD), number of heavy precipitation days (R10), number of very heavy precipitation days (R20), consecutive wet days (CWD), and maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day). The findings show that Pathumthani is increasingly susceptible to future flooding, as indicated by lower CDD and higher CWD. The lower CDD (decreasing from 77 days to 38–45 days) and higher CWD (increasing from 7 days to 21–22 days) suggest that Pathumthani is more likely to have more rainfall in the future. In addition, land use and land cover change (LULCC) contributes to persistent flooding in the province. The province’s rapid urbanization results in higher susceptibility to flooding as agricultural land is converted into urban infrastructure, commercial, industrial and residential areas. The conversion of repetitively flooded agricultural areas into urban areas also aggravates the flood situation. To mitigate the impact of climate change-induced floods, provincial authorities should implement non-structural anti-flood strategies (i.e., flood adaptation strategies), in addition to existing structural anti-flood measures. This research is the first to employ the dynamically downscaling regional climate models and LULCC to project future rainfall and flood risks. The projection techniques are also applicable to different geographical settings that are prone to flooding.

Suggested Citation

  • Nawhath Thanvisitthpon & Arisara Nakburee & Panita Saguansap & Prinya Mruksirisuk, 2025. "Climate change-induced urban flooding trend analysis and land use change: a case study of flood-prone Pathumthani Province, Thailand," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 14731-14754, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s10668-024-05117-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-024-05117-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-024-05117-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-024-05117-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephanie E. Austin & James D. Ford & Lea Berrang-Ford & Malcolm Araos & Stephen Parker & Manon D. Fleury, 2015. "Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Canadian Jurisdictions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, January.
    2. Benjamin Kipkemboi Kogo & Lalit Kumar & Richard Koech, 2021. "Climate change and variability in Kenya: a review of impacts on agriculture and food security," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 23-43, January.
    3. Skillington, Katie & Crawford, Robert H. & Warren-Myers, Georgia & Davidson, Kathryn, 2022. "A review of existing policy for reducing embodied energy and greenhouse gas emissions of buildings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Cools, Jan & Innocenti, Demetrio & O’Brien, Sarah, 2016. "Lessons from flood early warning systems," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 117-122.
    5. Jun-Young Park & Fabian Schloesser & Axel Timmermann & Dipayan Choudhury & June-Yi Lee & Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, 2023. "Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Joel B. Smith & Thea Dickinson & Joseph D.B. Donahue & Ian Burton & Erik Haites & Richard J.T. Klein & Anand Patwardhan, 2011. "Development and climate change adaptation funding: coordination and integration," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 987-1000, May.
    7. repec:bla:devpol:v:27:y:2009:i:6:p:675-692 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephanie E. Austin & Robbert Biesbroek & Lea Berrang-Ford & James D. Ford & Stephen Parker & Manon D. Fleury, 2016. "Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie & Maruf Yakubu Ahmed & Phebe Asantewaa Owusu, 2022. "Global adaptation readiness and income mitigate sectoral climate change vulnerabilities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Chen Zhao & Rupert Gladstone & Thomas Zwinger & Fabien Gillet-Chaulet & Yu Wang & Justine Caillet & Pierre Mathiot & Leopekka Saraste & Eliot Jager & Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi & Poul Christoffersen & M, 2025. "Subglacial water amplifies Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Vieri Tarchiani & Giovanni Massazza & Maurizio Rosso & Maurizio Tiepolo & Alessandro Pezzoli & Mohamed Housseini Ibrahim & Gaptia Lawan Katiellou & Paolo Tamagnone & Tiziana De Filippis & Leandro Rocc, 2020. "Community and Impact Based Early Warning System for Flood Risk Preparedness: The Experience of the Sirba River in Niger," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-24, February.
    5. Koirala, Pankaj & Kotani, Koji & Managi, Shunsuke, 2022. "How do farm size and perceptions matter for farmers’ adaptation responses to climate change in a developing country? Evidence from Nepal," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 188-204.
    6. Ribašauskienė, Erika & Volkov, Artiom & Morkūnas, Mangirdas & Žičkienė, Agnė & Dabkiene, Vida & Štreimikienė, Dalia & Baležentis, Tomas, 2024. "Strategies for increasing agricultural viability, resilience and sustainability amid disruptive events: An expert-based analysis of relevance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Abrar Chaudhury, 2020. "Role of Intermediaries in Shaping Climate Finance in Developing Countries—Lessons from the Green Climate Fund," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-17, July.
    8. Field, Edward & Ghosh, Aritra, 2023. "Energy assessment of advanced and switchable windows for less energy-hungry buildings in the UK," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    9. Katerina Trepekli & Thomas Balstrøm & Thomas Friborg & Bjarne Fog & Albert N. Allotey & Richard Y. Kofie & Lasse Møller-Jensen, 2022. "UAV-borne, LiDAR-based elevation modelling: a method for improving local-scale urban flood risk assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 423-451, August.
    10. Sagar Ratna Bajracharya & Narendra Raj Khanal & Pashupati Nepal & Sundar Kumar Rai & Pawan Kumar Ghimire & Neera Shrestha Pradhan, 2021. "Community Assessment of Flood Risks and Early Warning System in Ratu Watershed, Koshi Basin, Nepal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-18, March.
    11. Luke P. Jackson & Katarina Juselius & Andrew B. Martinez & Felix Pretis, 2025. "Modelling the dependence between recent changes in polar ice sheets: Implications for global sea-level projections," Working Papers 2025-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    12. Derartu Wodajo Sedata & Diriba Korecha Dadi & Weyessa Garedew Terefe & Tadesse Terefe Zeleke, 2025. "Smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate extremes in west and southwest Showa zones, Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-24, February.
    13. Ha Junsheng & Yuning Mu & Muhammad Mehedi Masud & Rulia Akhtar & Abu Naser Mohammad Saif & K. M. Anwarul Islam & Nusrat Hafiz, 2024. "Navigating the nexus: unraveling technological innovation, economic growth, trade openness, ICT, and CO2 emissions through symmetric and asymmetric analysis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Wang, Donglin & Li, Yanbin & Zhang, Binbin & Jiang, Tengcong & Wu, Siyu & Wu, Wenjie & Li, Yi & He, Jianqiang & Liu, Deli & Dong, Qinge & Feng, Hao, 2025. "Explore the evolution of winter wheat production and its response to climate change under varying precipitation years in the Loess Plateau of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    15. Schnack, Alexander & Bartsch, Fabian & Osburg, Victoria-Sophie & Errmann, Amy, 2024. "Sustainable agricultural technologies of the future: Determination of adoption readiness for different consumer groups," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    16. Pickering, Jonathan & Skovgaard, Jakob & Kim, Soyeun & Roberts, J. Timmons & Rossati, David & Stadelmann, Martin & Reich, Hendrikje, 2015. "Acting on Climate Finance Pledges: Inter-Agency Dynamics and Relationships with Aid in Contributor States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 149-162.
    17. Israel R. Orimoloye & Adeyemi O. Olusola & Johanes A. Belle & Chaitanya B. Pande & Olusola O. Ololade, 2022. "Drought disaster monitoring and land use dynamics: identification of drought drivers using regression-based algorithms," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1085-1106, June.
    18. Dehai Zhu & Qian Cao, 2023. "Two determination models of slope failure pattern based on the rainfall intensity–duration early warning threshold," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 1917-1931, September.
    19. George Blumberg & Maurizio Sibilla, 2023. "A Carbon Accounting and Trading Platform for the uk Construction Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-20, February.
    20. Sterre Bierens & Kees Boersma & Marc J. C. van den Homberg, 2020. "The Legitimacy, Accountability, and Ownership of an Impact-Based Forecasting Model in Disaster Governance," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(4), pages 445-455.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s10668-024-05117-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.