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Climate change-induced urban flooding trend analysis and land use change: a case study of flood-prone Pathumthani Province, Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Nawhath Thanvisitthpon

    (Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi)

  • Arisara Nakburee

    (Kasetsart University)

  • Panita Saguansap

    (Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi)

  • Prinya Mruksirisuk

    (Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi)

Abstract

The aim of this research is to project climate change-induced rainfall for three future periods using three dynamically downscaling regional climate models (RCM1–RCM3) based on three respective global climate models: ICHEC-ECEARTH, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-MR and NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M. The projections are carried out under two representative concentration pathways: RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The three future periods include near- (2022–2040), mid- (2041–2060) and far-future (2061–2099). The study area is Thailand’s central province of Pathumthani, which is a low-lying area and prone to flash flooding. The projected climate-induced rainfall is measured by five future extreme climate indexes: consecutive dry days (CDD), number of heavy precipitation days (R10), number of very heavy precipitation days (R20), consecutive wet days (CWD), and maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day). The findings show that Pathumthani is increasingly susceptible to future flooding, as indicated by lower CDD and higher CWD. The lower CDD (decreasing from 77 days to 38–45 days) and higher CWD (increasing from 7 days to 21–22 days) suggest that Pathumthani is more likely to have more rainfall in the future. In addition, land use and land cover change (LULCC) contributes to persistent flooding in the province. The province’s rapid urbanization results in higher susceptibility to flooding as agricultural land is converted into urban infrastructure, commercial, industrial and residential areas. The conversion of repetitively flooded agricultural areas into urban areas also aggravates the flood situation. To mitigate the impact of climate change-induced floods, provincial authorities should implement non-structural anti-flood strategies (i.e., flood adaptation strategies), in addition to existing structural anti-flood measures. This research is the first to employ the dynamically downscaling regional climate models and LULCC to project future rainfall and flood risks. The projection techniques are also applicable to different geographical settings that are prone to flooding.

Suggested Citation

  • Nawhath Thanvisitthpon & Arisara Nakburee & Panita Saguansap & Prinya Mruksirisuk, 2025. "Climate change-induced urban flooding trend analysis and land use change: a case study of flood-prone Pathumthani Province, Thailand," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 14731-14754, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:6:d:10.1007_s10668-024-05117-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-024-05117-z
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