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Impact of carbon emissions and GDP on air quality: forecast from 20 regions of China

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  • Yongtong Li

    (Hebei University of Engineering)

  • Lifeng Wu

    (Hebei University of Engineering)

Abstract

In recent years, China has proposed to harmonize the development of economy and environment, as well as reduce pollution and carbon emissions to achieve the “double carbon” target. These programs have significantly improved regional air quality. In this paper, the regional GDP and carbon emissions are used as influencing factors to predict the air quality of provinces in seven geographic divisions of China. Four scenarios are set up in this paper. The grey multivariate convolutional model with priority accumulation of new information is adopted to predict the Air Quality Composite Index for provinces. The results show that most provinces have harmonized economic and environmental development, and it is better to synergize the pollution and carbon reduction programs. However, some provinces have economic and environmental incompatibilities, such as Jilin and Guangxi. Some provinces have the problem of uncoordinated pollution reduction and carbon reduction, such as Beijing and Shanghai. In response to these problems, this paper proposes corresponding recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongtong Li & Lifeng Wu, 2025. "Impact of carbon emissions and GDP on air quality: forecast from 20 regions of China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 7063-7089, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:27:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10668-023-04180-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-04180-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen, Yan & Lifeng, Wu & Lianyi, Liu & Kai, Zhang, 2020. "Fractional Hausdorff grey model and its properties," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
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    3. Wan Yun Hong & David Koh & Liya E. Yu, 2022. "Development and Evaluation of Statistical Models Based on Machine Learning Techniques for Estimating Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 and PM 10 ) Concentrations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-32, June.
    4. Qinren Shi & Bo Zheng & Yixuan Zheng & Dan Tong & Yang Liu & Hanchen Ma & Chaopeng Hong & Guannan Geng & Dabo Guan & Kebin He & Qiang Zhang, 2022. "Co-benefits of CO2 emission reduction from China’s clean air actions between 2013-2020," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
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