IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v26y2024i3d10.1007_s10668-023-03022-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Econometric and stochastic analysis of stock price before and during COVID-19 in India

Author

Listed:
  • Madhavan Madheswaran

    (Thiagarajar College, Madurai Kamaraj University)

  • Kasilingam Lingaraja

    (Thiagarajar College)

  • Pandiaraja Duraisamy

    (Thiagarajar College)

Abstract

Unexpected and sudden spread of the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has opened up many scopes for researchers in the fields of biotechnology, health care, educational sectors, agriculture, manufacturing, service sectors, marketing, finance, etc. Hence, the researchers are concerned to study, analyze and predict the impact of infection of COVID-19. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected many fields, particularly the stock markets in the financial sector. In this paper, we have proposed an econometric approach and stochastic approach to analyze the stochastic nature of stock price before and during a COVID-19-specific pandemic period. For our study, we considered the BSE SENSEX INDEX closing pricing data from the Bombay Stock Exchange for the period before and during COVID-19. We have applied the statistical tools, namely descriptive statistics for testing the normal distribution of data, unit root test for testing the stationarity, and GARCH and stochastic model for measuring the risk, also investigated drift and volatility (or diffusion) coefficients of the stock price SDE by using R Environment software and formulated the 95% confidence level bound with the help of 500 times simulations. Finally, the results have been obtained from these methods and simulations are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Madhavan Madheswaran & Kasilingam Lingaraja & Pandiaraja Duraisamy, 2024. "Econometric and stochastic analysis of stock price before and during COVID-19 in India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 7579-7594, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03022-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03022-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-023-03022-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-023-03022-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolau, João, 2008. "Modeling financial time series through second-order stochastic differential equations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(16), pages 2700-2704, November.
    2. Cheng, Tingting & Liu, Junli & Yao, Wenying & Zhao, Albert Bo, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility connectedness network of global stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Flavio Boccia & Pasquale Sarnacchiaro, 2020. "Chi‐squared automatic interaction detector analysis on a choice experiment: An evaluation of responsible initiatives on consumers' purchasing behavior," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 1143-1151, March.
    4. Ning Zhang & Aiqun Wang & Naveed-Ul- Haq & Safia Nosheen, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 shocks on the volatility of stock markets in technologically advanced countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 2191-2216, December.
    5. Srikanth Iyer & Seema Nanda & Swapnil Kumar, 2013. "An Empirical Comparison of Two Stochastic Volatility Models using Indian Market Data," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(3), pages 243-259, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ouyang, Zisheng & Zhou, Xuewei & Lu, Min & Liu, Ke, 2024. "Imported financial risk in global stock markets: Evidence from the interconnected network," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Shu, Huisheng & Jiang, Ziwei & Zhang, Xuekang, 2023. "Parameter estimation for integrated Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with small Lévy noises," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Daniela Covino & Immacolata Viola & Tetiana Paientko & Flavio Boccia, 2021. "Neuromarketing: some remarks by an economic experiment on food consumer perception and ethic sustainability," RIVISTA DI STUDI SULLA SOSTENIBILITA', FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(1), pages 187-199.
    4. Yuan, Ying & Wang, Haiying & Jin, Xiu, 2022. "Pandemic-driven financial contagion and investor behavior: Evidence from the COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Izunna Anyikwa & Andrew Phiri, 2023. "Connectedness and spillover between African equity, commodity, foreign exchange and cryptocurrency markets during the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine conflict," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Lin, Zih-Ying & Lu, Jia-Wen, 2024. "The impact of COVID-19 on global investor attention," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Yousaf, Imran & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Alshater, Muneer M. & Bouri, Elie & Li, Yanshuang, 2023. "Multidimensional connectedness among the volatility of global financial markets around the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Tianshun Yan & Changlin Mei, 2017. "A test for a parametric form of the volatility in second-order diffusion models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 1583-1596, December.
    9. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2023. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive the dynamic spillover among traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies? The role of the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Mbarki, Imen & Omri, Abdelwahed & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2022. "From sentiment to systemic risk: Information transmission in Asia-Pacific stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. Fei Su & Feifan Wang & Yahua Xu, 2025. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Volatility Spillovers Among International Stock Market Indices During the COVID-19 Outbreak," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 32(1), pages 237-266, March.
    12. Xing, Shuo & Cheng, Tingting & Sun, Shuanglin, 2024. "Do investors herd under global crises? A comparative study between Chinese and the United States stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    13. Di, Michael & Xu, Ke, 2022. "COVID-19 vaccine and post-pandemic recovery: Evidence from Bitcoin cross-asset implied volatility spillover," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    14. Nupur Moni Das & Bhabani Sankar Rout & Yashmin Khatun, 2023. "Does G7 Engross the Shock of COVID 19: An Assessment with Market Volatility?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(4), pages 795-816, December.
    15. Habibi Reza, 2012. "A note on Newton's method for system of stochastic differential equations," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 275-285, December.
    16. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Yousaf, Imran & Makram, Beljid, 2023. "Spillovers between positively and negatively affected service sectors from the COVID-19 health crisis: Implications for portfolio management," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2023. "Natural gas and the utility sector nexus in the U.S.: Quantile connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Antonios Persakis, 2024. "The impact of climate policy uncertainty on ESG performance, carbon emission intensity and firm performance: evidence from Fortune 1000 firms," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(9), pages 24031-24081, September.
    19. Mei-jun, Ling & Guang-xi, Cao, 2024. "Dynamics of asymmetric multifractal cross-correlations between cryptocurrencies and global stock markets: Role of gold and portfolio implications," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    20. Appel Mahmud & Donghong Ding & Md. Morshadul Hasan, 2021. "Corporate Social Responsibility: Business Responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440209, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:26:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10668-023-03022-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.