IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v25y2023i7d10.1007_s10668-022-02323-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A system dynamics model for a holistic analysis of urban NOx emissions: a case study of Tehran, Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Ahamadreza Tahsiri

    (K.N. Toosi University of Technology)

  • Mohammadjavad Arab

    (K.N. Toosi University of Technology)

Abstract

Nowadays, a big effort has been made to find the right solution strategy for controlling the complex, multidimensional and diverse problem of urban air pollution. However, despite good development in this area, academia and governance divisions are still investing the development with a reliable methodology for examining the full scope of the problem under real conditions. This paper thus proposes a system dynamic-based model that is capable of representing the full pattern of behaviour of NOx emission in metropolitan settings, dependent on a network of contributing factors. The study identifies five underlying interconnected subsystems, each of which potentially causes a significant level of NOx pollution, and the consequence synergy, stemming from the operation of all subsystems together. These are: (1) the sector of the economy, (2) the population structure and changes, (3) urban transport operations, (4) the performance of industries and businesses sector, and (5) energy production level and method. The Vensim software simulated the model using 15 years of data from Tehran-related activities. The simulation takes into account four different scenarios: (a) maintaining the existing trends in business and industries; (b) enhancing the energy sector’s productivity; (c) improving the transport management system’s efficiency; and (d) a mixed scenario situation, applying the second (b) and the third (c) scenarios simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahamadreza Tahsiri & Mohammadjavad Arab, 2023. "A system dynamics model for a holistic analysis of urban NOx emissions: a case study of Tehran, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 7299-7323, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:7:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02323-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02323-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-022-02323-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-022-02323-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gupta, Monika & Bandyopadhyay, Kaushik Ranjan & Singh, Sanjay K., 2019. "Measuring effectiveness of carbon tax on Indian road passenger transport: A system dynamics approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 341-354.
    2. Barlas, Yaman, 1989. "Multiple tests for validation of system dynamics type of simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 59-87, September.
    3. Liu, Xue & Ma, Shoufeng & Tian, Junfang & Jia, Ning & Li, Geng, 2015. "A system dynamics approach to scenario analysis for urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 253-270.
    4. Lauren Gies & Datu Agusdinata & Venkatesh Merwade, 2014. "Drought adaptation policy development and assessment in East Africa using hydrologic and system dynamics modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 789-813, November.
    5. Jaramillo, Paulina & Muller, Nicholas Z., 2016. "Air pollution emissions and damages from energy production in the U.S.: 2002–2011," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 202-211.
    6. Trappey, Amy J.C. & Trappey, Charles & Hsiao, C.T. & Ou, Jerry J.R. & Li, S.J. & Chen, Kevin W.P., 2012. "An evaluation model for low carbon island policy: The case of Taiwan's green transportation policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 510-515.
    7. Frederick A. Armah & David O. Yawson & Alex A. N. M. Pappoe, 2010. "A Systems Dynamics Approach to Explore Traffic Congestion and Air Pollution Link in the City of Accra, Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-14, January.
    8. Cheng, Yung-Hsiang & Chang, Yu-Hern & Lu, I.J., 2015. "Urban transportation energy and carbon dioxide emission reduction strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 953-973.
    9. Aslani, Alireza & Helo, Petri & Naaranoja, Marja, 2014. "Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: System dynamics approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 758-765.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Monika & Bandyopadhyay, Kaushik Ranjan & Singh, Sanjay K., 2019. "Measuring effectiveness of carbon tax on Indian road passenger transport: A system dynamics approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 341-354.
    2. Lorena Cadavid & Kathleen Salazar-Serna, 2021. "Mapping the Research Landscape for the Motorcycle Market Policies: Sustainability as a Trend—A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Xu, Xiaomin & Niu, Dongxiao & Xiao, Bowen & Guo, Xiaodan & Zhang, Lihui & Wang, Keke, 2020. "Policy analysis for grid parity of wind power generation in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Elham Heidari & Sona Bikdeli & Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar, 2023. "A dynamic model for CO2 emissions induced by urban transportation during 2005–2030, a case study of Mashhad, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 4217-4236, May.
    5. Meng Li & Guowei Hua & Haijun Huang, 2018. "A Multi-Modal Route Choice Model with Ridesharing and Public Transit," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-14, November.
    6. Nusirat Ojuolape Gold & Fauziah Md. Taib & Yaxin Ma, 2022. "Firm-Level Attributes, Industry-Specific Factors, Stakeholder Pressure, and Country-Level Attributes: Global Evidence of What Inspires Corporate Sustainability Practices and Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-28, October.
    7. Zhenxiang Cao & Liqing Peng, 2023. "The Impact of Digital Economics on Environmental Quality: A System Dynamics Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    8. Shawhan, Daniel L. & Picciano, Paul D., 2019. "Costs and benefits of saving unprofitable generators: A simulation case study for US coal and nuclear power plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 383-400.
    9. Nicholas Z Muller & Akshaya Jha, 2017. "Does environmental policy affect scaling laws between population and pollution? Evidence from American metropolitan areas," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-15, August.
    10. Oliva, Rogelio, 2003. "Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 552-568, December.
    11. Hongxia Sun & Yao Wan & Huirong Lv, 2020. "System Dynamics Model for the Evolutionary Behaviour of Government Enterprises and Consumers in China’s New Energy Vehicle Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, February.
    12. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    13. Jin, Tao & Jiang, Yulian & Liu, Xingwen, 2023. "Evolutionary game analysis of the impact of dynamic dual credit policy on new energy vehicles after subsidy cancellation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    14. Behnam Zakeri & Samuli Rinne & Sanna Syri, 2015. "Wind Integration into Energy Systems with a High Share of Nuclear Power—What Are the Compromises?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-35, March.
    15. Fan, Ruguo & Dong, Lili, 2018. "The dynamic analysis and simulation of government subsidy strategies in low-carbon diffusion considering the behavior of heterogeneous agents," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 252-262.
    16. Solaymani, Saeed, 2019. "CO2 emissions patterns in 7 top carbon emitter economies: The case of transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 989-1001.
    17. Yang, Qing & Zhang, Lei & Zhang, Jinsuo & Zou, Shaohui, 2021. "System simulation and policy optimization of China's coal production capacity deviation in terms of the economy, environment, and energy security," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Torres, Juan Pablo & Barrera, Jose Ignacio & Kunc, Martin & Charters, Steve, 2021. "The dynamics of wine tourism adoption in Chile," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 474-485.
    19. Pye, Steve & Daly, Hannah, 2015. "Modelling sustainable urban travel in a whole systems energy model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 97-107.
    20. Poot-López, Gaspar Román & Hernández, Juan M. & Gasca-Leyva, Eucario, 2010. "Input management in integrated agriculture-aquaculture systems in Yucatan: Tree spinach leaves as a dietary supplement in tilapia culture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 98-104, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:7:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02323-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.