IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v59y2020i1d10.1007_s00181-019-01630-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investor sentiment, investor crowded-trade behavior, and limited arbitrage in the cross section of stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Liyun Zhou

    (South China Agricultural University)

  • Chunpeng Yang

    (South China University of Technology)

Abstract

We examine the interaction effects of investor sentiment, investor crowded-trade behavior, and limited arbitrage on the cross section of stock returns. This paper presents strong evidence to reveal that investor crowded-trade behavior will increase stock prices greatly (little) among stocks with positive (negative) investor sentiment; and investor sentiment will increase (not increase) stock prices among stocks with extreme seller-initiated (buyer-initiated) crowded-trade behavior. Furthermore, this paper finds that the benchmark-adjusted returns are positive among stocks with relatively positive investor sentiment and buyer-initiated crowded-trade behavior, and negative among stocks with relatively negative investor sentiment and seller-initiated crowded-trade behavior. Finally, this paper demonstrates that limited arbitrage plays more roles on stocks with pessimistic sentiment and seller-initiated crowded-trade behavior. Taken together, this paper confirms the combined effects of investor sentiment and investor crowded-trade behavior on the cross section of stock returns, and further explores the moderating effect of limited arbitrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Liyun Zhou & Chunpeng Yang, 2020. "Investor sentiment, investor crowded-trade behavior, and limited arbitrage in the cross section of stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 437-460, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01630-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01630-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-019-01630-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-019-01630-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2014. "The long of it: Odds that investor sentiment spuriously predicts anomaly returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 613-619.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    3. Kumari, Jyoti & Mahakud, Jitendra, 2015. "Does investor sentiment predict the asset volatility? Evidence from emerging stock market India," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 25-39.
    4. Yang, Chunpeng & Gao, Bin, 2014. "The term structure of sentiment effect in stock index futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 171-182.
    5. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Prize Lecture)," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1936, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004. "Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
    7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    8. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    9. DeLisle, R. Jared & McTier, Brian C. & Smedema, Adam R., 2016. "Systematic limited arbitrage and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from exchange traded funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 118-136.
    10. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1486-1517, June.
    11. Lutz, Chandler, 2016. "The Asymmetric Effects Of Investor Sentiment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1477-1503, September.
    12. Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be a momentum time-series predictor? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 212-239.
    13. Yang, Chunpeng & Zhou, Liyun, 2016. "Individual stock crowded trades, individual stock investor sentiment and excess returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 39-53.
    14. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    15. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    16. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    17. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    18. Bin Gao & Chunpeng Yang, 2018. "Investor Trading Behavior and Sentiment in Futures Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 707-720, February.
    19. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    20. Akhtar, Shumi & Faff, Robert & Oliver, Barry & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2012. "Stock salience and the asymmetric market effect of consumer sentiment news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3289-3301.
    21. Jia, Yun & Yang, Chunpeng, 2017. "Disagreement and the risk-return relation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 97-104.
    22. Jeremy C. Stein, 2009. "Presidential Address: Sophisticated Investors and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1517-1548, August.
    23. Joao Gomes & Leonid Kogan & Lu Zhang, 2003. "Equilibrium Cross Section of Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(4), pages 693-732, August.
    24. Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Xin Duan, 2010. "A principal-component approach to measuring investor sentiment," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 339-347.
    25. Grundy, Bruce D & Martin, J Spencer, 2001. "Understanding the Nature of the Risks and the," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 29-78.
    26. Harrison Hong & Weikai Li & Sophie X. Ni & Jose A. Scheinkman & Philip Yan, 2015. "Days to Cover and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 21166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Kapadia, Nikunj & Pu, Xiaoling, 2012. "Limited arbitrage between equity and credit markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 542-564.
    28. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    29. Doojin Ryu & Hyeyoen Kim & Heejin Yang, 2017. "Investor sentiment, trading behavior and stock returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(12), pages 826-830, July.
    30. Robert F. Stambaugh & Jianfeng Yu & Yu Yuan, 2015. "Arbitrage Asymmetry and the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1903-1948, October.
    31. Cao, Jie & Han, Bing, 2016. "Idiosyncratic risk, costly arbitrage, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-15.
    32. Blocher, Jesse, 2016. "Network externalities in mutual funds," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-26.
    33. Richard Sias & H. J. Turtle & Blerina Zykaj, 2016. "Hedge Fund Crowds and Mispricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 764-784, March.
    34. Liao, Tsai-Ling & Huang, Chih-Jen & Wu, Chieh-Yuan, 2011. "Do fund managers herd to counter investor sentiment?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 207-212, February.
    35. Wu, Yanran & Liu, Tingting & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecasts: Does investor sentiment matter in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 147-163.
    36. Randall S. Kroszner & Robert J. Shiller, 2011. "Reforming U.S. Financial Markets," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262015455 edited by Benjamin M. Friedman, April.
    37. Owain Ap Gwilym & Iftekhar Hasan & Qingwei Wang & Ru Xie, 2016. "In Search of Concepts: The Effects of Speculative Demand on Stock Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), pages 427-449, June.
    38. Zhu, Bo & Niu, Feng, 2016. "Investor sentiment, accounting information and stock price: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 125-134.
    39. Samuel G. Hanson & Adi Sunderam, 2014. "The Growth and Limits of Arbitrage: Evidence from Short Interest," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 1238-1286.
    40. Jinfang Li, 2015. "The asymmetric effects of investor sentiment and monetary policy on stock prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(24), pages 2514-2522, May.
    41. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Seok, Sangik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2024. "Dual effects of investor sentiment and uncertainty in financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 300-315.
    2. Kim, Karam & Ryu, Doojin & Yang, Heejin, 2021. "Information uncertainty, investor sentiment, and analyst reports," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Pedro Manuel Nogueira Reis & Carlos Pinho, 2021. "A Reappraisal of the Causal Relationship between Sentiment Proxies and Stock Returns," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 420-442, October.
    4. Riso, Luigi & Vacca, Gianmarco, 2024. "Sentiment dynamics and volatility: A study based on GARCH-MIDAS and machine learning," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    5. Kanzari, Dalel & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Gaies, Brahim & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2023. "Predicting macro-financial instability – How relevant is sentiment? Evidence from long short-term memory networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Chen, Haozhi & Zhang, Yue, 2023. "Research on the effect of firm-specific investor sentiment on the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly: Evidence from the Chinese market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Liyun Zhou & Weinan Lin & Chunpeng Yang, 2024. "Investor trading behavior and asset prices: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1722-1744, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and daily stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Yang, Chunpeng & Zhou, Liyun, 2016. "Individual stock crowded trades, individual stock investor sentiment and excess returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 39-53.
    3. Zhou, Liyun & Yang, Chunpeng, 2019. "Stochastic investor sentiment, crowdedness and deviation of asset prices from fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 130-140.
    4. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2021. "Stock Market’s responses to intraday investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Seok, Sangik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2024. "Dual effects of investor sentiment and uncertainty in financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 300-315.
    6. Yang, Chunpeng & Zhou, Liyun, 2015. "Investor trading behavior, investor sentiment and asset prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-62.
    7. Li, Jinfang, 2022. "The sentiment pricing dynamics with short-term and long-term learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Pedro Manuel Nogueira Reis & Carlos Pinho, 2021. "A Reappraisal of the Causal Relationship between Sentiment Proxies and Stock Returns," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 420-442, October.
    9. Ahmed Bouteska & Taimur Sharif & Mohammad Zoynul Abedin, 2024. "Does investor sentiment create value for asset pricing? An empirical investigation of the KOSPI‐listed firms," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3487-3509, July.
    10. Li, Jinfang, 2019. "Sentiment trading, informed trading and dynamic asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 210-222.
    11. Li, Jinfang, 2020. "The momentum and reversal effects of investor sentiment on stock prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Liyun Zhou & Weinan Lin & Chunpeng Yang, 2024. "Investor trading behavior and asset prices: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1722-1744, April.
    13. Jinfang Li, 2021. "The term structure effects of individual stock investor sentiment on excess returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1695-1705, April.
    14. Li, Jinfang, 2017. "Investor sentiment, heterogeneous agents and asset pricing model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 504-512.
    15. Li, Yuan & Ran, Jimmy, 2020. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Price Premium Validation with Siamese Twins from China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    16. Gao, Bin & Liu, Xihua, 2020. "Intraday sentiment and market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 48-62.
    17. Heejin Yang & Doowon Ryu, 2021. "Investor Sentiment and Price Discrepancies between Common and Preferred Stocks in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-11, May.
    18. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and the stock market response to earnings news," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 221-240.
    19. Ung, Sze Nie & Gebka, Bartosz & Anderson, Robert D.J., 2023. "Is sentiment the solution to the risk–return puzzle? A (cautionary) note," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    20. Liyun Zhou & Chunpeng Yang, 2019. "Differences in the effects of seller-initiated versus buyer-initiated crowded trades in stock markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(4), pages 859-890, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:59:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-019-01630-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.