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Resolving spurious regressions and serially correlated errors

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  • Christos Agiakloglou

Abstract

This study investigates the spurious regression phenomenon for two independent stationary and non-stationary processes and illustrates, using a Monte Carlo analysis, that estimation of the spurious regression in first differences or with a lagged dependent variable eliminates the spurious regression problem. Moreover, the results also apply in eliminating the problem of serially correlated errors as well as the problem of ARCH(1) errors. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Agiakloglou, 2013. "Resolving spurious regressions and serially correlated errors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1361-1366, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:45:y:2013:i:3:p:1361-1366
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0647-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clive Granger & Namwon Hyung & Yongil Jeon, 2001. "Spurious regressions with stationary series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 899-904.
    2. Francesc Marmol, 1995. "SPURIOUS REGRESSIONS BETWEEN I(d) PROCESSES," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 313-321, May.
    3. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1413, August.
    4. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    5. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
    6. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    7. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1414, August.
    8. Newbold, P & Davies, N, 1978. "Error Mis-Specification and Spurious Regressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 513-519, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Kun & Gong, Qiang & Fu, Xiaowen & Fan, Xingli, 2014. "Frequency and aircraft size dynamics in a concentrated growth market: The case of the Chinese domestic market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 50-58.
    2. Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés & Alejandra I. Martínez-Olmos, 2016. "A comment on ‘resolving spurious regressions and serially correlated errors’," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1289-1298, November.
    3. Christos Agiakloglou & Cleon Tsimbos & Apostolos Tsimpanos, 2019. "Evidence of spurious results along with spatially autocorrelated errors in the context of geographically weighted regression for two independent SAR(1) processes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1613-1631, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spurious regressions; Stationary and non-stationary processes; Lagged dependent variable; Serially correlated errors; ARCH(1) errors; C22;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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