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Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors

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  • Stanley Smith
  • Terry Sincich

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  • Stanley Smith & Terry Sincich, 1988. "Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 25(3), pages 461-474, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:25:y:1988:i:3:p:461-474
    DOI: 10.2307/2061544
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steve Murdock & F. Leistritz & Rita Hamm & Sean-Shong Hwang & Banoo Parpia, 1984. "An assessment of the accuracy of a regional economic-demographic projection model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 21(3), pages 383-404, August.
    2. Joao Saboia, 1974. "Modeling and forecasting populations by time series: The Swedish case," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 11(3), pages 483-492, August.
    3. Robert C. Schmitt & Albert H. Crosetti, 1951. "Accuracy of the Ratio Method for Forecasting City Population," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 27(4), pages 346-348.
    4. Joel Cohen, 1986. "Population forecasts and confidence intervals for sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 23(1), pages 105-126, February.
    5. Jacob S. Siegel, 1953. "Forecasting the Population of Small Areas," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(1), pages 72-88.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. J Reilly, 1997. "A Method of Assigning Population and a Progress Report on the Use of a Spatial Simulation Model," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 24(5), pages 725-739, October.
    2. Samuel Bimenyimana & Godwin Norense Osarumwense Asemota & Paula Jeanne Ihirwe & Cicilia Kemunto Mesa & Lingling Li, 2018. "Performance estimation of Ntaruka hydropower plant and its comparison with the prediction results obtained by SPSS," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(6), pages 1004-1021, September.
    3. Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2006. "Empirical Confidence Intervals for WASDE Forecasts of Corn, Soybean and Wheat Prices," 2006 Conference, April 17-18, 2006, St. Louis, Missouri 18995, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    4. Stefan Rayer & Stanley Smith & Jeff Tayman, 2009. "Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 28(6), pages 773-793, December.
    5. Charles, Coleman, 1999. "Nonparametric Tests For Bias In Estimates And Forecasts," MPRA Paper 77841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Tafirenyika Sunde & Olusegun A. Akanbi, 2016. "Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 125-143.
    7. Jeff Tayman & Stanley Smith & Jeffrey Lin, 2007. "Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 347-369, June.
    8. Jason Thomas & Samuel J. Clark, 2011. "More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(2), pages 39-102.
    9. Stanley Smith & Jeff Tayman, 2003. "An evaluation of population projections by age," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(4), pages 741-757, November.
    10. Stefan Rayer, 2007. "Population forecast accuracy: does the choice of summary measure of error matter?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(2), pages 163-184, April.
    11. Jeff Tayman, 2011. "Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts: State of the Practice and Implementation Strategy," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(5), pages 781-800, October.
    12. Tom Wilson & Huw Brokensha & Francisco Rowe & Ludi Simpson, 2018. "Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 137-155, February.
    13. Jeff Tayman & Stanley Smith & Stefan Rayer, 2011. "Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy: A Regression Approach Using County Data," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(2), pages 235-262, April.
    14. Stefan Rayer & Stanley Smith, 2014. "Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties: Assessing Accuracy and the Impact of Adjustments," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(5), pages 747-770, October.
    15. Stanley Smith & Terry Sincich, 1991. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Population Forecast Errors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 28(2), pages 261-274, May.
    16. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2008. "Quantile Regression Methods of Estimating Confidence Intervals for WASDE Price Forecasts," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6409, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Rodier, Caroline J. & Johnston, Robert A., 2002. "Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 613-631, August.
    18. Shobande Olatunji Abdul & Shodipe Oladimeji Tomiwa, 2020. "Re-Evaluation of World Population Figures: Politics and Forecasting Mechanics," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 34(1), pages 104-125, February.
    19. Sevcíková, Hana & Raftery, Adrian E. & Waddell, Paul A., 2007. "Assessing uncertainty in urban simulations using Bayesian melding," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 652-669, July.
    20. Hana Sevcikova & Adrian E. Raftery & Patrick Gerland, 2018. "Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(60), pages 1843-1884.

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