IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wii/wpaper/276.html

Ageing costs, public debt sustainability and EU fiscal rules

Author

Listed:
  • Meryem Gökten

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Philipp Heimberger

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

This paper examines the role of ageing costs in the reformed EU fiscal rules. Governments must pre-emptively tighten fiscal policy to offset projected ageing cost increases, but required adjustments depend on underlying assumptions. Using alternative scenarios, we show that small changes in ageing cost assumptions can lead to marked differences in debt paths and consolidation needs. The framework ignores ageing-related uncertainty in these projections. Lower ageing costs may even raise long-run debt by reducing upfront tightening. Overall, our results highlight that fiscal adjustment requirements – and their economic effects – are highly sensitive to uncertain and arbitrary ageing-related assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Meryem Gökten & Philipp Heimberger, 2026. "Ageing costs, public debt sustainability and EU fiscal rules," wiiw Working Papers 276, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:276
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/ageing-costs-public-debt-sustainability-and-eu-fiscal-rules-dlp-7620.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vivien A. Schmidt, 2013. "Democracy and Legitimacy in the European Union Revisited: Input, Output and ‘Throughput’," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 61(1), pages 2-22, March.
    2. Stanley Smith & Terry Sincich, 1988. "Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 25(3), pages 461-474, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Hyman & Rebecca Gumbrell-McCormick, 2020. "(How) can international trade union organisations be democratic?," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, , vol. 26(3), pages 253-272, August.
    2. J Reilly, 1997. "A Method of Assigning Population and a Progress Report on the Use of a Spatial Simulation Model," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 24(5), pages 725-739, October.
    3. Christoph Engel & Luigi Mittone & Azzurra Morreale, 2024. "Outcomes or participation? Experimentally testing competing sources of legitimacy for taxation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 563-583, April.
    4. Alexander Kentikelenis & Erik Voeten, 2021. "Legitimacy challenges to the liberal world order: Evidence from United Nations speeches, 1970–2018," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 721-754, October.
    5. Isuru Koswatte & Chandrika Fernando, 2022. "Policy Development for Crisis Management in the Context of Sri Lanka," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 20(3 (Fall)), pages 295-327.
    6. John R. Moodie & Viktor Salenius & Michael Kull, 2022. "From impact assessments towards proactive citizen engagement in EU cohesion policy," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 1113-1132, October.
    7. Carina I. Hausladen & Regula Hänggli Fricker & Dirk Helbing & Renato Kunz & Junling Wang & Evangelos Pournaras, 2024. "How voting rules impact legitimacy," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Marlous Blankesteijn & Bart Bossink, 2020. "Assessing the Legitimacy of Technological Innovation in the Public Sphere: Recovering Raw Materials from Waste Water," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-16, November.
    9. Nikitas Konstantinidis & Konstantinos Matakos & Hande Mutlu-Eren, 2019. "“Take back control”? The effects of supranational integration on party-system polarization," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 297-333, June.
    10. Hugh Breakey, 2021. "Harnessing Multidimensional Legitimacy for Codes of Ethics: A Staged Approach," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 170(2), pages 359-373, May.
    11. Onna Malou van den Broek, 2024. "How Political Actors Co‐Construct CSR and its Effect on Firms' Political Access: A Discursive Institutionalist View," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 595-626, March.
    12. Christoph Klika, 2015. "The Implementation of the REACH Authorisation Procedure on Chemical Substances of Concern: What Kind of Legitimacy?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 3(1), pages 128-138.
    13. Eugenio Salvati, 2024. "Debating Legitimacy and Solidarity in the European Parliament: Patterns of Opposition and Conflict During the Pandemic," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(6), pages 1692-1711, November.
    14. Pascal Horni, 2025. "When Expertise Is Not Enough: Explaining the European Commission's Non‐success in the Integration of Public Sector Accounting," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(6), pages 1886-1909, November.
    15. Vincent Caby & Lise Frehen, 2021. "How to Produce and Measure Throughput Legitimacy? Lessons from a Systematic Literature Review," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(1), pages 226-236.
    16. Jeff Tayman & Stanley Smith & Jeffrey Lin, 2007. "Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 347-369, June.
    17. Bartek Pytlas, 2021. "Hijacking Europe: Counter‐European Strategies and Radical Right Mainstreaming during the Humanitarian Crisis Debate 2015–16," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 335-353, March.
    18. Jason Thomas & Samuel J. Clark, 2011. "More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(2), pages 39-102.
    19. Vincent Caby & Lise Frehen, 2021. "How to Produce and Measure Throughput Legitimacy? Lessons from a Systematic Literature Review," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(1), pages 226-236.
    20. Jaewook Lee, 2026. "Pushed by markets, pulled by machines: Economic pressures and the backlash to the European Union," European Union Politics, , vol. 27(1), pages 3-31, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:276. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Customer service (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wiiwwat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.