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Ellsberg 1961: text, context, influence

Author

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  • Ivan Moscati

    (University of Insubria
    Bocconi University
    LSE)

Abstract

In 1961 Daniel Ellsberg published an article titled “Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms” in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, which became a seminal contribution to the theory of decision-making under uncertainty. This paper analyzes Ellsberg’s 1961 classic, situates it within the context of decision-making theory in the 1950s and early 1960s and within the development of Ellsberg’s ideas, and provides an overview of the experimental and theoretical literature to which it gave rise.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Moscati, 2024. "Ellsberg 1961: text, context, influence," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 47(2), pages 627-653, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:decfin:v:47:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s10203-024-00437-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10203-024-00437-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2012. "Decision Theory Under Ambiguity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 234-270, April.
    2. Carlo Zappia, 2018. "Rationality under uncertainty: classic and current criticisms of the Bayesian viewpoint," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 1387-1419, November.
    3. Ivan Moscati, 2016. "Retrospectives: How Economists Came to Accept Expected Utility Theory: The Case of Samuelson and Savage," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 219-236, Spring.
    4. Christoph Bühren & Fabian Meier & Marco Pleßner, 2023. "Ambiguity aversion: bibliometric analysis and literature review of the last 60 years," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 495-525, June.
    5. Gilboa, Itzhak & Postlewaite, Andrew & Schmeidler, David, 2009. "Is It Always Rational To Satisfy Savage'S Axioms?," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 285-296, November.
    6. Camerer, Colin & Weber, Martin, 1992. "Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 325-370, October.
    7. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    8. Mongin, Philippe, 2019. "The Allais paradox: what it became, what it really was, what it now suggests to us," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 423-459, November.
    9. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    10. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00643580 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kenneth R. Maccrimmon, 1968. "Descriptive and Normative Implications of the Decision-Theory Postulates," International Economic Association Series, in: Karl Borch & Jan Mossin (ed.), Risk and Uncertainty, chapter 0, pages 3-32, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. William Fellner, 1961. "Distortion of Subjective Probabilities as a Reaction to Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(4), pages 670-689.
    13. Feduzi, Alberto, 2007. "On the relationship between Keynes's conception of evidential weight and the Ellsberg paradox," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 545-565, October.
    14. Itzhak Gilboa, 2015. "Rationality and the Bayesian paradigm," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 312-334, September.
    15. Frederick Mosteller & Philip Nogee, 1951. "An Experimental Measurement of Utility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(5), pages 371-371.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • B21 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Microeconomics
    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General

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