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Portfolio Optimization Under Credit Risk

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  • Rudi Zagst
  • Jan Kehrbaum
  • Bernd Schmid

Abstract

Based on the models of Hull & White (1990) for the pricing of non-defaultable bonds and Schmid & Zagst (2000) for the pricing of defaultable bonds we develop a framework for the optimal allocation of assets out of a universe of sovereign bonds with different time to maturity and quality of the issuer. We estimate the model parameters by applying Kaiman filtering methods as described in (Schmid & Kalemanova 2002). Based on these estimates we simulate the prices for a given set of bonds for a future time horizon. For each future time step and for each given portfolio composition these scenarios yield distributions of future cash flows and portfolio values. We show how the portfolio composition can be optimized by maximizing the expected final value or return of the portfolio under given constraints. Copyright Physica-Verlag 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Rudi Zagst & Jan Kehrbaum & Bernd Schmid, 2003. "Portfolio Optimization Under Credit Risk," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 317-338, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:18:y:2003:i:3:p:317-338
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03354601
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    2. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    3. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    4. Bawa, Vijay S., 1975. "Optimal rules for ordering uncertain prospects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 95-121, March.
    5. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    6. Harlow, W. V. & Rao, Ramesh K. S., 1989. "Asset Pricing in a Generalized Mean-Lower Partial Moment Framework: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 285-311, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Scheuenstuhl, Gerhard & Zagst, Rudi, 2008. "Integrated portfolio management with options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1477-1500, March.
    2. Nielsen, Caren Yinxia, 2016. "Banks' Credit-Portfolio Choices and Risk-Based Capital Regulation," Working Papers 2016:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    3. Yinxia Nielsen, Caren, 2015. "Banks’ credit-portfolio choices and riskbased capital regulation," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2015/8, Lund University, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies.
    4. Iscoe, Ian & Kreinin, Alexander & Mausser, Helmut & Romanko, Oleksandr, 2012. "Portfolio credit-risk optimization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1604-1615.

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    Keywords

    Portfolio Optimization; Defaultable Bonds;

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