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From regional climate models to usable information

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  • Julie Jebeile

    (University of Bern
    CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques)

Abstract

Today, a major challenge for climate science is to overcome what is called the “usability gap” between the projections derived fromclimate models and the needs of the end-users. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are expected to provide usable information concerning a variety of impacts and for a wide range of end-users. It is often assumed that the development of more accurate, more complex RCMs with higher spatial resolution should bring process understanding and better local projections, thus overcoming the usability gap. In this paper, I rather assume that the credibility of climate information should be pursued together with two other criteria of usability, which are salience and legitimacy. Based on the Swiss climate change scenarios, I study the attempts at meeting the needs of end-users and outline the trade-off modellers and users have to face with respect to the cascade of uncertainty. A conclusion of this paper is that the trade-off between salience and credibility sets the conditions under which RCMs can be deemed adequate for the purposes of addressing the needs of end-users and gearing the communication of the projections toward direct use and action.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie Jebeile, 2024. "From regional climate models to usable information," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(3), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03693-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03693-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Cash, David & Clark, William & Alcock, Frank & Dickson, Nancy & Eckley, Noelle & Jager, Jill, 2002. "Salience, Credibility, Legitimacy and Boundaries: Linking Research, Assessment and Decision Making," Working Paper Series rwp02-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    7. Katzav, Joel & Thompson, Erica L. & Risbey, James & Stainforth, David A. & Bradley, Seamus & Frisch, Mathias, 2021. "On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112978, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    1. Marina Baldissera Pacchetti & Suraje Dessai & James S. Risbey & David A. Stainforth & Erica Thompson, 2024. "Perspectives on the quality of climate information for adaptation decision support," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(11), pages 1-14, November.

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