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Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development

Author

Listed:
  • James E. Neumann

    (Industrial Economics, Inc.)

  • Paul Chinowsky

    (Resilient Analytics, Inc. and University of Colorado)

  • Jacob Helman

    (Resilient Analytics, Inc. and University of Colorado)

  • Margaret Black

    (Industrial Economics, Inc.)

  • Charles Fant

    (Industrial Economics, Inc.)

  • Kenneth Strzepek

    (Industrial Economics, Inc.
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Jeremy Martinich

    (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)

Abstract

Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the USA. Using models that analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation, this paper estimates impacts to railroad, roads, and coastal properties under three infrastructure management response scenarios: No Adaptation; Reactive Adaptation, and Proactive Adaptation. Comparing damages under each of these potential responses provides strong support for facilitating effective adaptation in these three sectors. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and without adaptation, overall costs are projected to range in the $100s of billions annually by the end of this century. The first (reactive) tier of adaptation action, however, reduces costs by a factor of 10, and the second (proactive) tier reduces total costs across all three sectors to the low $10s of billions annually. For the rail and road sectors, estimated costs for Reactive and Proactive Adaptation scenarios capture a broader share of potential impacts, including selected indirect costs to rail and road users, and so are consistently about a factor of 2 higher than prior estimates. The results highlight the importance of considering climate risks in infrastructure planning and management.

Suggested Citation

  • James E. Neumann & Paul Chinowsky & Jacob Helman & Margaret Black & Charles Fant & Kenneth Strzepek & Jeremy Martinich, 2021. "Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-23, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:167:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03179-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03179-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B. Shane Underwood & Zack Guido & Padmini Gudipudi & Yarden Feinberg, 2017. "Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 704-707, October.
    2. Jeremy Martinich & James Neumann & Lindsay Ludwig & Lesley Jantarasami, 2013. "Risks of sea level rise to disadvantaged communities in the United States," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 169-185, February.
    3. Steven J. Schuldt & Mathew R. Nicholson & Yaquarri A. Adams & Justin D. Delorit, 2021. "Weather-Related Construction Delays in a Changing Climate: A Systematic State-of-the-Art Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-25, March.
    4. Jeremy Martinich & Allison Crimmins, 2019. "Climate damages and adaptation potential across diverse sectors of the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 397-404, May.
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    2. Nathan S. Debortoli & Tristan D. Pearce & James D. Ford, 2023. "Estimating Future Costs for Infrastructure in the Proposed Canadian Northern Corridor at Risk From Climate Change," SPP Research Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 16(6), March.
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