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Co-benefits of black carbon mitigation for climate and air quality

Author

Listed:
  • Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Pim Dorst

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Detlef P. Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Maarten Berg

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Rita Dingenen

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • Zbigniew Klimont

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Mitigation of black carbon (BC) aerosol emissions can potentially contribute to both reducing air pollution and climate change, although mixed results have been reported regarding the latter. A detailed quantification of the synergy between global air quality and climate policy is still lacking. This study contributes with an integrated assessment model-based scenario analysis of BC-focused mitigation strategies aimed at maximizing air quality and climate benefits. The impacts of these policy strategies have been examined under different socio-economic conditions, climate ambitions, and BC mitigation strategies. The study finds that measures targeting BC emissions (including reduction of co-emitted organic carbon, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxides) result in significant decline in premature mortality due to ambient air pollution, in the order of 4 to 12 million avoided deaths between 2015 and 2030. Under certain circumstances, BC mitigation can also reduce climate change, i.e., mainly by lowering BC emissions in the residential sector and in high BC emission scenarios. Still, the effect of BC mitigation on global mean temperature is found to be modest at best (with a maximum short-term GMT decrease of 0.02 °C in 2030) and could even lead to warming (with a maximum increase of 0.05 °C in case of a health-focused strategy, where all aerosols are strongly reduced). At the same time, strong climate policy would improve air quality (the opposite relation) through reduced fossil fuel use, leading to an estimated 2 to 5 million avoided deaths in the period up to2030. By combining both air quality and climate goals, net health benefits can be maximized.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen & Pim Dorst & Detlef P. Vuuren & Maarten Berg & Rita Dingenen & Zbigniew Klimont, 2020. "Co-benefits of black carbon mitigation for climate and air quality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1519-1538, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02800-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02800-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mathijs Harmsen & Detlef Vuuren & Maarten Berg & Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Adriana Marcucci & Drew Shindell & Michiel Schaeffer, 2015. "How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO 2 radiative forcing?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 565-582, December.
    2. Steven J. Smith & Shilpa Rao & Keywan Riahi & Detlef P. Vuuren & Katherine V. Calvin & Page Kyle, 2016. "Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 13-24, September.
    3. David McCollum & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Peter Kolp & Arnulf Grubler & Marek Makowski & Nebojsa Nakicenovic, 2013. "Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 479-494, July.
    4. Lara Aleluia Reis & Laurent Drouet & Rita Van Dingenen & Johannes Emmerling, 2018. "Future Global Air Quality Indices under Different Socioeconomic and Climate Assumptions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-27, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuan Lai, 2022. "Urban Intelligence for Carbon Neutral Cities: Creating Synergy among Data, Analytics, and Climate Actions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Steven J. Smith & Zbigniew Klimont & Laurent Drouet & Mathijs Harmsen & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Riahi & Detlef P. Vuuren & John P. Weyant, 2020. "The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 study on short-lived climate forcers: introduction and overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1399-1408, December.

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