IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i13p6817-d581935.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional Features of Long-Term Exposure to PM 2.5 Air Quality over Asia under SSP Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models

Author

Listed:
  • Sungbo Shim

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Hyunmin Sung

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Sanghoon Kwon

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Jisun Kim

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Jaehee Lee

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Minah Sun

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Jaeyoung Song

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Jongchul Ha

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Younghwa Byun

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Yeonhee Kim

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Steven T. Turnock

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
    University of Leeds Met Office Strategic (LUMOS) Research Group, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK)

  • David S. Stevenson

    (School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, UK)

  • Robert J. Allen

    (Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA 92521, USA)

  • Fiona M. O’Connor

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Joao C. Teixeira

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Jonny Williams

    (National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington 6022, New Zealand)

  • Ben Johnson

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • James Keeble

    (Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK
    National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1EW, UK)

  • Jane Mulcahy

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Guang Zeng

    (National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington 6022, New Zealand)

Abstract

This study investigates changes in fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentration and air-quality index (AQI) in Asia using nine different Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from historical and future scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicated that the estimated present-day PM 2.5 concentrations were comparable to satellite-derived data. Overall, the PM 2.5 concentrations of the analyzed regions exceeded the WHO air-quality guidelines, particularly in East Asia and South Asia. In future SSP scenarios that consider the implementation of significant air-quality controls (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air-quality controls (SSP2-4.5), the annual PM 2.5 levels were predicted to substantially reduce (by 46% to around 66% of the present-day levels) in East Asia, resulting in a significant improvement in the AQI values in the mid-future. Conversely, weak air pollution controls considered in the SSP3-7.0 scenario resulted in poor AQI values in China and India. Moreover, a predicted increase in the percentage of aged populations (>65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM 2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM 2.5 , it may also contribute to the warming of near- and mid-future climates.

Suggested Citation

  • Sungbo Shim & Hyunmin Sung & Sanghoon Kwon & Jisun Kim & Jaehee Lee & Minah Sun & Jaeyoung Song & Jongchul Ha & Younghwa Byun & Yeonhee Kim & Steven T. Turnock & David S. Stevenson & Robert J. Allen &, 2021. "Regional Features of Long-Term Exposure to PM 2.5 Air Quality over Asia under SSP Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:13:p:6817-:d:581935
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/13/6817/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/13/6817/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lara Aleluia Reis & Laurent Drouet & Rita Van Dingenen & Johannes Emmerling, 2018. "Future Global Air Quality Indices under Different Socioeconomic and Climate Assumptions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-27, October.
    2. Jinwon Kim & Yu Gu & Kuo-Nan Liou & Rokjin Park & Chang-Keun Song, 2012. "Direct and semi-direct radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols in the Western United States: Seasonal and geographical variations according to regional climate characteristics," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 859-877, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mathijs J. H. M. Harmsen & Pim Dorst & Detlef P. Vuuren & Maarten Berg & Rita Dingenen & Zbigniew Klimont, 2020. "Co-benefits of black carbon mitigation for climate and air quality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1519-1538, December.
    2. Yuting Xue & Kai Liu, 2022. "Regional Differences, Distribution Dynamics, and Convergence of Air Quality in Urban Agglomerations in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Sebastian Walerysiak & Henryk Wojtaszek & Ireneusz Miciula, 2020. "Dynamic Effects of Sustainable Development Activities in the Air Quality for Selected Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 135-147.
    4. Getachew F. Belete & Alexey Voinov & Iñaki Arto & Kishore Dhavala & Tatyana Bulavskaya & Leila Niamir & Saeed Moghayer & Tatiana Filatova, 2019. "Exploring Low-Carbon Futures: A Web Service Approach to Linking Diverse Climate-Energy-Economy Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-24, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:13:p:6817-:d:581935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.