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Projections of climate change impacts on central America tropical rainforest

Author

Listed:
  • André Lyra

    (National Institute for Space Research – INPE)

  • Pablo Imbach

    (Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center – CATIE 7170)

  • Daniel Rodriguez

    (National Institute for Space Research – INPE)

  • Sin Chan Chou

    (National Institute for Space Research – INPE)

  • Selena Georgiou

    (Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center – CATIE 7170)

  • Lucas Garofolo

    (National Institute for Space Research – INPE)

Abstract

Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary productivity and contributing to CO2 sequestration. The objective of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, net primary production and changes in forest extent and distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest remains due to the CO2 fertilization effect. The future distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America.

Suggested Citation

  • André Lyra & Pablo Imbach & Daniel Rodriguez & Sin Chan Chou & Selena Georgiou & Lucas Garofolo, 2017. "Projections of climate change impacts on central America tropical rainforest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 93-105, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1790-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1790-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter M. Cox & Richard A. Betts & Chris D. Jones & Steven A. Spall & Ian J. Totterdell, 2000. "Erratum: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6813), pages 750-750, December.
    2. Peter M. Cox & Richard A. Betts & Chris D. Jones & Steven A. Spall & Ian J. Totterdell, 2000. "Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6809), pages 184-187, November.
    3. Norman Myers & Russell A. Mittermeier & Cristina G. Mittermeier & Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca & Jennifer Kent, 2000. "Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6772), pages 853-858, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lukas Baumbach & Thomas Hickler & Rasoul Yousefpour & Marc Hanewinkel, 2023. "High economic costs of reduced carbon sinks and declining biome stability in Central American forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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