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A megacity in a changing climate: the case of Kolkata

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  • Susmita Dasgupta
  • Asvani Gosain
  • Sandhya Rao
  • Subhendu Roy
  • Maria Sarraf

Abstract

Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that there will be an increase in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes in the 21st century. Kolkata, a megacity in India, has been singled out as one of the urban centers vulnerable to climate risks. Modest flooding during monsoons at high tide in the Hooghly River is a recurring hazard in Kolkata. More intense rainfall, riverine flooding, sea level rise, and coastal storm surges in a changing climate can lead to widespread and severe flooding and bring the city to a standstill for several days. Using rainfall data, high and low emissions scenarios, and sea level rise of 27 cm by 2050, this paper assesses the vulnerability of Kolkata to increasingly intense precipitation events for return periods of 30, 50, and 100 years. It makes location-specific inundation depth and duration projections using hydrological, hydraulic, and urban storm models with geographic overlays. High resolution spatial analysis provides a roadmap for designing adaptation schemes to minimize the impacts of climate change. The modeling results show that de-silting of the main sewers would reduce vulnerable population estimates by at least 5 %. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Susmita Dasgupta & Asvani Gosain & Sandhya Rao & Subhendu Roy & Maria Sarraf, 2013. "A megacity in a changing climate: the case of Kolkata," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 747-766, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:116:y:2013:i:3:p:747-766
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0516-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
    2. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
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    1. Seong Yun Cho & Heejun Chang, 2017. "Recent research approaches to urban flood vulnerability, 2006–2016," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 633-649, August.
    2. Andrew Rumbach & Manish Shirgaokar, 2017. "Predictors of household exposure to monsoon rain hazards in informal settlements," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 709-728, January.
    3. Endreny, T. & Santagata, R. & Perna, A. & Stefano, C. De & Rallo, R.F. & Ulgiati, S., 2017. "Implementing and managing urban forests: A much needed conservation strategy to increase ecosystem services and urban wellbeing," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 360(C), pages 328-335.

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